摘要
文章分析认为,人民币定价机制中强调“参考一篮子货币变动”,使得2018年6月前的2年里,人民币汇率与美元指数存在较显著的线性关系。但近三个季度以来这一关系减弱,其原因可能在于中间价定价中的过滤波动机制导致的汇率“粘性”,及贸易战预期等其他影响因素。文章据此提出弱化目前人民币汇率“粘性”的建议。预计夏秋季后人民币汇率将随美指下跌而有所突破。
This paper thinks that the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism emphasizes the "adjustment with reference to a basket of currencies", which has made the RMB have a rather significant linear relationship with the US dollar index over the last two years before June 2018. However, the relationship between the two currencies has weakened in the past three quarters, which may be caused by the exchange rate “stickiness” due to the volatility filtering mechanism in the pricing of central parity rate and the trade war expectations. The paper proposes to weaken the “stickiness” of the RMB exchange rate. It is expected that the RMB exchange rate will rise following the decline of the US dollar index after the summer or autumn.
出处
《中国货币市场》
2019年第5期38-40,共3页
China Money
