摘要
在收集2000～2017年我国GDP和钢铁产业共10个指标数值的基础上,运用灰色系统软件,计算出了4种灰色关联度矩阵。经分析,找出了最(准)优系统特征行为序列、准优和次准优相关因素序列、最差和次最差相关因素序列。对GDP和钢产量进行延迟后的灰色关联度分析,找到了延迟的年份。运用灰色预测软件GM(1,1),对9个指标2018～2021年的发展进行了预测,误差很低,反映了各个指标的增长态势:GDP、GDP增长率和铁矿石进口量呈现高速增长的态势;钢产量、钢消费量、钢进口量、钢自给率将呈现平稳增长的态势;而铁矿石产量、铁矿石自给率则将持续下降。
With the collected 10 indicators for China's GDP and steel & iron industry in the period of 2000~2017,four kinds of gray correlation matrices were computed by using the software of Grey Modeling. Based on the analysis,the characteristic behavior sequence for the most ( quasi)-perfect system,sequence of quasi-perfect correlation factors and sub-quasiperfect correlation factors,as well as sequence of the worst and next to the worst correlation factors were all obtained. A grey correlational analysis was made for steel output and lagging GDP growth,and the specific year with such lagging phenomena was also found. With GM( 1,1 ),a Gray Forecast Model,the variation of nine indicators in the period of 2018 ~ 2021 was forecasted with a small margin of error,presenting a rapid growing trend for GDP,GDP growth rate and iron ore imports,a steady growth in steel output,steel consumption and imports,as well as steel selfsufficiency rate,but a continuing decline of iron ore output and iron ore self-sufficiency rate.
作者
王贵成
贺振
高俊丽
WANG Gui-cheng;HE Zhen;GAO Jun-li(School of Surveying and Planning,Shangqiu Normal University,Shangqiu 476000,Henan,China;Luyi ThirdSenior High School of Zhoukou City of Henan Province,Zhoukou 477200,Henan,China)
出处
《矿冶工程》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第2期128-132,共5页
Mining and Metallurgical Engineering
基金
河南省哲学社会科学规划项目(2014CJJ087)
河南省教育厅人文社会科学重点项目(2015-ZD-085)
河南省高等学校重点科研项目(17A170003)
关键词
灰色理论
经济发展
钢铁产业
GDP
grey theory
economic development
steel & iron industry
GDP
