摘要
在供给侧改革的帮助下,人民的生活水平日益提高.居民拥有民用车的数量不断增加,但过多的民用车辆给交通带来了极大的不便,同时也加重了大气污染.以2011—2016年《河南省统计年鉴》数据为原始数据,通过运用离散GM(1,1)模型,对2017—2019年的河南省民用车拥有量做出合理预测.由于以原始数据进行建模发现误差过大,故引入一阶平均弱化缓冲算子.结果表明:引入平均弱化缓冲算子后的离散GM(1,1)模型误差明显减小,满足精度需求.运用该模型对2017—2019年的河南省民用车拥有量进行合理预测,给出建议.
With the help of supply-side reform,people's living standards are improving day by day.The number of civilian cars owned by residents is increasing,but too many civilian vehicles have brought great inconvenience to traffic and increased atmospheric pollution.Taking the data of Henan Statistical Yearbook from 2011 to 2016 as the original data,a reasonable prediction on the ownership of civil vehicles in Henan province from 2017 to 2019 was maked by using the discrete GM(1,1)model.The first-order average weakening buffer operator is introduced because the error is too large when the original data was modeled.The results showed that the error of discrete GM(1,1)model after introducing average weakening buffer operator is obviously reduced,which meets the accuracy requirements.So the model is used to predict the civil car ownership in Henan province from 2017 to 2019.Finally,some relevant suggestions are given.
作者
王植
刘解放
WANG Zhi;LIU Jiefang(School Mathematical Sciences,Henan Institute of Science and Technology,Xinxiang 453003,China)
出处
《河南科技学院学报（自然科学版）》
2019年第2期44-48,共5页
Journal of Henan Institute of Science and Technology(Natural Science Edition)
基金
中国博士后科学基金面上项目(2018M632777)
