摘要
基于我国2001—2017年七个地区水资源的储水量与需求量,利用ARMA(p,q)模型预测未来的区域水资源供应量和需求量,并应用神经网络模型对预测进行修正。综合考虑水资源供需平衡、调度成本和环境保护等因素,建立区域水资源配置的目标规划模型,结合预测结果,求解2025年和2030年水资源调度方案。分析结果表明:西南和华南为净输出的地区,主要输出到华中、西北和华东地区;华东与华中既为输出又为输入地区,起着调度"枢纽"的作用,但从结果来看仍有水资源缺口;西北和东北有少量的输出到华北地区;华南、西南和东北没有水资源输入;输入水资源量的大小排序为华东、华北、华中和西北。
Based on the storage and demand of water resources in seven regions in China from 2001 to 2017, ARMA(p, q) model is used to predict the supply and demand of water resources in the region in the future, and the neural network model is used to modify the prediction. Considering the balance between supply and demand of water resources, dispatching cost, environmental protection and other factors, the objective planning model of regional water resources allocation is established, and the water resources dispatching schemes in 2025 and 2030 are solved by combining the predicted results. The results show that southwest China and south China are net output regions, and the main input regions are central China, northwest China and east China. East China and central China are both output and input regions, playing the role of a “hub” for scheduling, but the results show that there is still a gap in water resources;northwest and northeast have a small amount of output to north China;South China, southwest and northeast China have no water input;the order of water resources input is east China, north China, central China and northwest China.
作者
张伟
ZHANG Wei(Xuhai College, China University of Mining & Technology, Xuzhou 221008, China)
出处
《南通职业大学学报》
2019年第1期58-62,共5页
Journal of Nantong Vocational University
关键词
水资源调度
预测
ARMA(p
q)模型
供需平衡
目标规划
water resources management
predicting
ARMA (p, q) model
balance between supply and demand
goal programming
