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自贸区背景下海南农旅融合绩效协整分析 被引量:4

A Cointegration Analysis of Integrated Performance of Tourism and Agriculture Industries in Hainan Province Under the Background of Free Trade Zone
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摘要 选取1987—2017年反映农旅发展水平的相关数据,运用协整检验、格兰杰因果关系检验、脉冲响应函数分析等计量方法,实证研究海南省农旅融合发展的相互关系。结果表明:海南省入境旅游和国内旅游对海南省农业发展存在着显著的单向格兰杰原因关系,海南国内旅游总收入每增长1%,农业增加值增长0.516%;海南入境旅游收入每增长1%,农业增加值增长0.418%,充分说明了海南省入境旅游和国内旅游对海南省农业发展有促进作用。因此,加快海南省入境旅游、国内旅游与农业融合发展十分必要。此外,脉冲响应函数分析显示,海南省农业增长不仅能自我促进,而且对海南省国内旅游和入境旅游发展具有显著正效应。 Collecting relevant data that reflect the development level of the agriculture and tourism industries in Hainan Province from 1987 to 2017, such methods of measurement as cointegration test, Granger causality test and impulse response function are adopted to empirically research the interaction between the tourism industry and the agriculture industry in Hainan. The results indicate that a significant unidirectional Granger causality exists in the impact of inbound and domestic tourism in Hainan on the agricultural development in Hainan. The added value of agriculture grows 0.516% as the total revenue of domestic tourism in Hainan increases by 1%,and that value grows 0.418% with an increase of inbound tourism revenue by 1%. So, it is concluded that inbound and domestic tourism can promote the agricultural development in Hainan, which makes it compulsory to speed up the integrated development of inbound and domestic tourism with agriculture in Hainan. In addition, impulse response function shows that the agricultural growth in Hainan can not only promote its own development,but exert a significant positive effect on the development of domestic and inbound tourism in Hainan.
作者 聂磊 范芳玉 NIE Lei;FAN Fang-yu(School of Business Administration,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Wuhan 430073,China;School of International Law,China University of Political Science and Law,Beijing 100088,China)
出处 《海南大学学报(人文社会科学版)》 CSSCI 2019年第2期63-69,共7页 Journal of Hainan University (Humanities & Social Sciences)
关键词 海南 自贸区 农旅融合 协整分析 Hainnan free trade zone integration of agriculture and tourism industries cointegration test
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