摘要
通过EViews分析工具,选取全国所有城市商业银行2014年9月至2018年4月理财业务余额、各项贷款余额、同业投资余额、流动性比例的月度数据,建立面板数据模型。实证研究发现:在资管新规实施之前,城商行资产、理财、贷款和投资(2)规模的增加均会导致城商行流动性比例的增加,其中,理财规模对城商行流动性的影响力不容小觑,大于贷款余额和投资余额对城商行流动性比例的影响力。因此,资管新规的实施在短期内将导致银行理财资金的运行规模和效率有所下降,从而导致城商行流动性比例下降,但这并不一定意味着城商行将出现流动性风险;从长期来看,将有利于促进理财业务回归"受人之托、代人理财"的本质,构建稳健的流动性风险管理机制。
By using EViews, the author constructed panel data model with balance of personal financing, loans, inter-bank investments and monthly liquidity ratio of all city commercial banks from September 2014 to April 2018. The empirical study shows that increase of the scale of asset, personal financing, loan and investment lead to higher liquidity ratio of city commercial banks before the implementation of the new asset management regulation. Scale of personal financing significantly affects liquidity ratio of city commercial banks which is higher than loan balance and investment balance. The author suggests that in short term, new asset management regulation may decrease the scale and efficiency of personal financing, which lead to lower liquidity ratio of city commercial banks, however, this does not mean that city commercial banks have liquidity risks. In long term, new asset management regulation will drive personal financing back to its essence of investments at the beneficiary of clients and construct reliable liquidity risk management mechanism.
出处
《上海立信会计金融学院学报》
2019年第2期67-77,共11页
Journal of Shanghai Lixin University of Accounting and Finance
关键词
资管新规
理财业务
流动性风险
New asset regulation
Personal financing
Liquidity risk
