摘要
经济学界对中国最低工资标准的劳动供给效应一直存在争议,其中一个重要原因是缺少最低工资标准调整前后微观面板数据而无法精确地进行政策评价。本文基于2007年和2008年中国乡城流动人口调查数据生成的面板数据,应用微观经济计量方法考察最低工资标准提升对农民工劳动供给的影响。研究发现最低工资标准提升对女性农民工的就业产生了显著的消极影响,主要体现在就业流入方面而非就业流出方面,对就业流入的消极影响主要集中于低技能女性农民工和第一代女性农民工;最低工资标准提升导致高技能男性农民工就业流入的增加并导致第一代男性农民工就业流出的减少,劳动力市场存在高技能劳动者对低技能劳动者的就业替代;农民工的工作时间因最低工资标准提升而显著延长,劳动力市场存在工作时间对就业的替代;女性农民工工作时间的延长无法补偿就业率的下降,导致农民工劳动供给的减少。因此,政府部门应该循序渐进地提升最低工资标准,避免引起农民工就业率较大幅度的降低;同时应加强对企业执行标准工作时间的监管,促进农民工就业的正规化,避免最低工资标准的执行过程中产生大量的超时加班现象。
Economists have been disputing about the labor supply effect of minimum wage in China,be?cause the lack of rich micro-panel data before and after the adjustment of the minimum wage has made it impossible to conduct accurate analysis. Based on the panel data generated from the 2007 to 2008 Ru?ral-Urban Migration in China,this paper applies the microeconomic econometric method to investigate the effect of increasing minimum wage on the labor supply of rural migrant workers. The results show that the increase of the minimum wage has a significant negative influence on the employment of female rural mi?grant workers. The negative influence on employment is mainly reflected in the employment inflow rather than the employment outflow. The negative influence on the employment inflow mainly focuses on low-skilled female rural migrant workers and the first generation of female rural migrant workers. The re?sults also show that increasing the minimum wage has a positive effect on the employment flow of high-skilled male rural migrant workers,and restrains the employment outflow of the first generation of male rural migrant workers. There exists the employment substitution of high-skilled workers for low-skilled workers in the labor market. The increase of the minimum wage leads to a significant extension of the working hours of rural migrant workers,and there is a substitution of working hours for employment in the labor market. But the increase of working hours of female rural migrant workers cannot compensate for the decline of employment rate,resulting in the reduction of labor supply of migrant workers. Therefore,the government should gradually raise the minimum wage to avoid causing a significant reduction in the employ?ment rate of rural migrant workers. At the same time,the government should strengthen the supervision of enterprises to implement the standard working hours,promote the formalization of rural migrant workers’ employment,and avoid a large number of overtime during the implementation of the minimum wag
作者
张世伟
韩笑
ZHANG Shiwei;HAN Xiao(Center for Quantitative Economics,Jilin University,Changchun Jilin,130012,China)
出处
《人口学刊》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第3期91-99,共9页
Population Journal
基金
国家社会科学基金项目:最低工资标准对农民工就业和收入影响的经验研究(14BJY212)
关键词
最低工资标准
农民工
劳动供给
就业
工作时间
Minimum Wage
Rural Migrant Workers
Labor Supply
Employment
Working Hours
