摘要
研究目标:揭示经济增长质量内涵,探究中国经济增长质量的变动趋势与提升动能的路径。研究方法:基于中国2000～2015年的时间序列数据,采用均方差赋权法与专家咨询法组合赋权,并与达优指数法相结合构造综合指数算法模型;采用结构分析法构造经济增长质量变动的因素贡献分解模型。研究发现:2015年中国经济增长质量比2000年提升了23.2%,但比2010年有所下滑,比2012年明显下降;中国经济增长质量结构呈现内在结构构造的强缺口性、质量因子优化的非齐次性和内在结构运行的不平稳性等三大特征。驱动经济增长质量提升第一因素是经济性质量,第二是负面性质量,第三是协调性质量,第四是创新性质量,第五是有效性质量。然而,在"十二五"规划时期,经济性质量却变成了抑制经济增长质量提升的首要因素,有效性质量的下滑也对中国经济增长质量的微降起到了推波助澜的作用,而创新性质量、协调性质量、负面性质量则有了明显的提升,对中国经济增长质量增长发挥了较大的推动作用,有望成为今后中国经济增长质量更好提升的重要推动力量。研究创新:在经济增长质量的内涵界定中引入了本源性质量;经济增长质量的内涵包括经济增长的有效性、经济性、创新性、协调性和负面性;采用均方差赋权法与专家咨询法组合赋权,并与达优指数法相结合构造综合指数算法模型,采用结构分析法构造经济增长质量变动的因素贡献分解模型。研究价值:揭示了中国经济增长质量变迁的动能结构以及最新转换趋势,为旨在推动中国经济增长质量更有效提升的政策设计提供了新的科学决策参考。
Research Objectives: It is revealing the connotation of the quality of economic growth and exploring the changing trend of China's economic growth quality and the path to enhance momentum. Research Methods: Based on the time sequence data of China from 2000 to 2015, it employs the method of weighting by means of mean square deviation and comprehensive weighting by expert consultation, combining optimality index to establish the algorithm model of comprehensive index. It employs structural analysis to establish the factor contribution decomposition model of the quality change of economic growth. Research Findings: It is found that the quality of China's economic growth in 2015 is 23.2% higher than that in 2000, but slightly lower than that in 2010 and significantly lower than that in 2012. The quality structure of China's economic growth shows three characteristics: strong gap of internal structure, non-homogeneity of quality factor optimization and instability of internal structure operation. Over the past 15 years, the first factor driving the quality of economic growth was the quality of economy, which was followed by the negative quality, the quality of coordination, and the quality of innovation, and the last was the quality of effectiveness. However, in the period of the 12th Five-Year Plan, the quality of economy had become the primary factor to restrain the improvement of the quality of economic growth. The decline in the quality of effectiveness had also contributed to the slight decline in the quality of economic growth in China, while the quality of innovation, coordination and negativity has been significantly improved. The quality growth of China's economic growth had played a greater role in promoting China's economic growth, and was expected to become an important driving force to improve the quality of China s economic growth in the future. Research Innovation: It introduces the intrinsic quality into the definition of economic growth quality.The connotation of economic growth quality includes the
作者
朱子云
Zhu Ziyun(Lishui Branch of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China)
出处
《数量经济技术经济研究》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第5期23-43,共21页
Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics
关键词
经济增长质量
本源性质量
质量指数
变动趋势
提升动能
Quality of Economic Growth
Intrinsic Quality
Quality Index
Changing Trend
Improving Momentum
