摘要
随着时间的推移,由于设备自身疲劳等因素的影响,设备的性能会不断退化。与此同时,设备在运行过程中,还会受到外部环境干扰,这导致了设备的性能退化的加速。针对这一问题,将设备的性能退化看作设备疲劳和外部环境干扰共同影响的连续变化过程,设计了一种新的考虑服从泊松分布外部干扰的非线性退化过程模型。提出了非线性退化过程中保留原参数的算法,从而克服了参数合并简化所带来的估计误差。经对比仿真试验验证,与不考虑外部环境干扰的模型相比,该模型能更好地描述设备的退化过程,提高了设备的剩余寿命预测精度,为设备剩余寿命预测的相关研究提供了一种新的思路。
Over time,the performance of the equipment will continue to degrade due to factors such as the fatigue of the equipment itself.At the same time,the equipment is also interfered by the external environment during operation,which leads to the acceleration of the performance degradation.In order to solve this problem,the performance degradation of equipment is regarded as a continuous process caused by both equipment fatigue and external environmental interference,a new nonlinear degradation process model considering external interference obeying Poisson distribution is designed.An algorithm is proposed to preserve the original parameters in the process of nonlinear degradation,which overcomes the estimation error caused by the simplification of parameter merging.Comparing with the model without considering external environment interference,the model can better describe the degradation process of equipment,improve the accuracy of residual lifetime prediction of equipment,and provide a new idea for the related research of residual lifetime prediction of equipment.
作者
李健东
陈秀荣
李娟
杨雪
佟春明
LI Jiandong;CHEN Xiurong;LI Juan;YANG Xue;TONG Chunming(College of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering,Qingdao Agricultural University,Qingdao 266109,China;College of Science and Information,Qingdao Agricultural University,Qingdao 266109,China)
出处
《自动化仪表》
CAS
2019年第4期9-13,共5页
Process Automation Instrumentation
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(41674037
61374126)
关键词
剩余寿命
预测
性能退化
非线性
泊松分布
随机过程
Residual lifetime
Prediction
Performance degradation
Nonlinearity
Poisson distribution
Stochastic process
