摘要
利用沣西新城海绵城市精细化格点预报产品与目前国内外常用的EC-thin、Japan、GRAPES、GRAPES_RAFS等数值预报模式产品,对2017年以来陕西省西咸新区沣西新城区域内不同天气背景下发生的3次不同类型降水以及高温天气过程进行分析,通过秦都钓台、鄠邑大王、长安马王3个区域站降水量以及气温实况与格点预报分时段对比检验,评估海绵城市精细化基础格点背景场产品预报效果。结果表明:在降水量预报上,海绵城市精细化预报产品体现出明显优于GRAPES、SLGRESS、GRAPES_RAFS模式预报结果;在降水发展趋势预报上,海绵城市精细化预报产品以及其他模式预报结果均能体现出实况降水的峰线型,降水发展趋势预报效果较好;在高温天气预报上,海绵城市精细化格点预报产品、EC-thin模式预报结果基本与实况吻合,气温差值均小于3℃,而GRAPES模式与Japan模式预报结果最差。
Based on the fine grid point forecast products of Fengxi New City Sponge City and the commonly used numerical forecast model products such as EC-thin,Japan,GRAPES and GRAPES_RAFS at home and abroad,an analysis was conducted of the three different types of precipitation and high temperature weather processes in Fengxi New District of Xixian New District of Shaanxi Province under different weather conditions in 2017.The forecasting effect of basic grid point background field products in the sponge city was evaluated through precipitation and temperature and grid point forecast time-separated comparison test in the three regional stations of Diaotai in Qindu,Dawang in Hu County,Mawang in Chang'an.The results show that the fine forecast products of the sponge city are obviously better than those of GRAPES,SLGRESS and GRAPES_RAFS models in precipitation forecasting,that the fine forecast products of the sponge city and other models can reflect the peak pattern of real precipitation,and that the forecast effect of precipitation development trend is better in high temperature weather forecasting.The results of fine grid forecast products and EC-thin model for the sponge city are basically in agreement with the actual situation.The temperature difference is less than 3℃,while the results of GRAPES model and Japan model are the worst.
作者
周德宏
牛乐田
王瑾婷
刘艳
ZHOU Dehong;NIU Letian;WANG Jinting;LIU Yan(Xianyang Municipal Meteorological Bureau,Xianyang 712000,Shaanxi,China)
出处
《咸阳师范学院学报》
2019年第2期77-85,共9页
Journal of Xianyang Normal University
关键词
海绵城市
格点预报
检验评估
sponge city
fine grid point prediction
inspection and evaluation
