摘要
从代际公平角度来看,地方政府具有为资本性开支债务融资的理由。但如何衡量地方政府债务融资的合理性与必然性?本文从人口、经济、政治和体制四个方面识别了我国地方政府债务规模的影响因素,并利用审计署公布的全面债务数据,对影响我国地方政府债务规模的因素进行定量分析与检验。计量结果显示:人口年龄结构对债务规模地区差异几无影响;无论是一般预算收入,还是中央补助收入,都正向促进了地方政府债务规模的增加,尤其是中央补助收入刺激了地方政府支出从而增加了地方政府债务融资;政治商业周期对债务规模存在一定影响,在地方政府官员任期的第三年,地方政府债务余额增加最快;财政透明度的省际差异不能解释地方政府债务融资规模的不同。
From the perspective of intergenerational equity, local governments have reasons to finance capital expenditure. How to measure the rationality and inevitability of local government debt? In this paper the influencing factors on the local government debt scale are identified comprehensively including the population factor, the economic factor, the political factor and the institutional factor. Based on the comprehensive debt data released by the national audit office, quantitative analysis and test were conducted on the factors influencing the debt scale of local governments in China. The results show that the age structure of population has little influence on the regional difference of debt scale. There is a strong positive correlation between the general budget income as well as the central government subsidy income and the local government debt scale. In particular, the central government subsidy income stimulates the local government expenditure and thus increases the local government debt. The influence of the political business cycle on the debt scale is a little significant. In the term of the third year of the local government officials, the debt balance of local governments increases the fastest. Fiscal transparency is not correlated with the local debt balance.
作者
刘昊
陈工
Liu Hao;Chen Gong
出处
《财政研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第2期30-43,共14页
Public Finance Research
基金
2018年国家社科基金重大项目"中国地区金融风险指数构建与应用研究"(18ZDA093)
关键词
地方政府债务
决定因素
政治商业周期
财政透明度
Local Government Debt
Determinants
Political Business Cycles
Fiscal Transparency
