摘要
为研究西北五省区二氧化碳排放与可再生能源的关系,通过收集陕西、甘肃、青海、宁夏、新疆5个省区1995—2014年的数据,对人均碳排放进行测算,建立面板均衡模型,运用单位根检验、面板协整检验和完全修正最小二乘回归法,探索可再生能源消费与二氧化碳排放之间的长期均衡关系;之后利用格兰杰因果关系检验,验证二者之间的动态因果关系。研究结果表明,西北地区可再生能源消费与人均二氧化碳、人均GDP间均存在双向因果关系,长期均衡模型的系数显示,可再生能源消费的增加会促进碳排放的降低,而人均GDP表现出相反的作用。因此,西北五省区的政府应该鼓励可再生能源消费,充分发挥地区可再生能源存储和开发优势,有助于早日实现西北区域的减排目标。
For the purpose of studying the relationship between carbon dioxide emission and renewable energy in the five northwest provinces, the per capita carbon emission is calculated to establish the panel equilibrium model by collecting the data of Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia and Xinjiang in 1995-2014, and the long-term equilibrium relationship between the renewable energy consumption and the carbon dioxide emission is explored by applying the unit root test, panel co-integration test and the completely-revised least square regression method. Later, the Granger causality is utilized to verify their dynamic causalities. The research result indicates that the bidirectional causality exists among the renewable energy consumption, per capita carbon dioxide and per capita GDP in the Northwest China, and the coefficient of the long-term equilibrium model shows that the increase of renewable energy consumption would reduce the carbon emission, while the per capita GDP has the opposite effect. Hence, the government in the five northwest provinces shall encourage the renewable energy consumption and fully exert the storage and development advantage of regional renewable energy, which is conductive to achieving the emission reduction target in the northwest region at an early date.
作者
赵涛
肖延歌
Zhao Tao;Xiao Yan ge(College of Management and Economics,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300000,China)
出处
《甘肃科学学报》
2019年第2期121-126,共6页
Journal of Gansu Sciences
