摘要
在探讨人口老龄化、民生支出、经济增长三者理论关系的基础上,利用我国2002～2016年各省年度数据对人口老龄化影响经济增长的效果和传导路径进行实证检验。研究结果显示:从全国样本来看,人口老龄化对经济增长产生显著正向影响,且存在以民生支出为中介变量的显著中介效应。我国东、中、西部地区人口老龄化显著促进经济增长,同时也存在以民生支出为中介变量的显著中介效应,但东部地区人口老龄化对经济增长的促进效用明显低于中西部地区。因此,在人口老龄化的推动下,政府应适当调整民生支出规模,提高其利用效率,从而缓解我国未富先老的现状,同时促进经济持续增长。
On the basis of the theoretical relationship between the aging population,the people's livelihood expenditure and the economic growth,this paper applies the annual data of the three provinces in China from 2002~2016 and makes an empirical test on the effect and transmission path of the population aging on the economic growth.The results show that from the national sample,the aging of the population has a significant positive impact on economic growth,and there is a significant intermediary effect of the people's livelihood expenditure as the intermediary variable.Further studies have found that the aging of population in the eastern,middle and western regions of China has also significantly promoted economic growth,and there is also a significant intermediary effect on people's livelihood expenditure as an intermediary variable.But the effect of population aging in the eastern region on economic growth is significantly weaker in the central and western regions.Therefore,under the impetus of population aging,the government should adjust the scale of people's livelihood expenditure to improve its utilization efficiency so as to alleviate the current situation of getting old before getting rich and promote sustainable economic growth.
作者
张雨雪
高挺
许海平
ZHANG Yu-xue;GAO Ting;XU Hai-ping(School of Management,Hainan University,Haikou 570228,China)
出处
《河北科技大学学报（社会科学版）》
2019年第1期1-9,共9页
Journal of Hebei University of Science and Technology:Social Sciences
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71563009)
关键词
人口老龄化
经济增长
民生支出
中介效应
population aging
economic growth
livelihood expenditure
mediation effect
