摘要
恒天然竞拍价格是全球乳制品拍卖平台(global dairy trade,GDT)上买卖双方经过议价而形成的最终交易价格,该拍卖平台是由全球第二大乳制品生产公司恒天然于2008年搭建的。以2008年以来恒天然拍卖价格和欧洲、大洋洲、美国市场批发价格月度数据为样本,采用Johansen协整检验、VEC模型和格兰杰因果关系检验等方法,研究了全脂奶粉、脱脂奶粉、黄油和奶酪4种乳制品的恒天然竞拍价格与欧洲、大洋洲和美国对应乳制品批发价格的相互关系、相互影响程度及其可能的影响机制。结果表明,三大地区4种乳制品价格对相同产品恒天然竞拍价格的反应程度存在较大差异,分产品来看,恒天然全脂奶粉和脱脂奶粉竞拍价格的影响力高于黄油和奶酪;分地区看,大洋洲和欧洲市场对恒天然竞拍价格的反应程度大于美国市场。
Fonterra auction price was the final transaction price formed by bargain of contracting parties on the global dairy trade,GDT,and the auction platform was established by Fonterra as the largest dairy company in the world in 2008.By selecting the Fonterra auction price and monthly data of wholesale price in European,Oceanian and American market as samples from 2008,this paper adopts Johansen co-integration test,VEC model and Granger causality to study the correlation of the Fonterra auction price of whole milk powder,defatted milk powder,butter and cheese with the wholesale price of corresponding products in Europe,Oceania and America and the mutual influence degree and possible impact mechanism.The results reveal that,the prices of the four varieties of dairy products in the three areas have large difference in response degree to the Fonterra auction price of the same product,and by product,the influence of Fonterra auction price of whole milk powder and defatted milk powder is higher than that of butter and cheese;by area,the response degree of the prices in Oceanian and European market is larger than that in American market.
作者
王晶晶
董晓霞
王川
WANG Jing-jing;DONG Xiao-xia;WANG Chuan(Agricultural Information Institute,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081;Key Laboratory of Agricultural Information Service Technology of Ministry of Agriculture)
出处
《价格月刊》
北大核心
2019年第3期1-7,共7页
基金
中国农业科学院科技创新工程专项(编号:CAAS-ASTIP-2016-AII)
关键词
乳制品
恒天然竞拍价格
VEC模型
国际市场
dairy products
Fonterra auction price
VED model
international market
