摘要
研究目标:从行业层面评估中国主动扩大进口的福利效应。研究方法:利用改进的GSIM模型与2017年全球乘用汽车生产与贸易数据,模拟了中国下调汽车关税的福利影响。研究发现:第一,对中国汽车行业冲击有限,中国乘用汽车的产量、销售价格、内销额将在2017年的基础上分别下降1.0%、1.64%、1.7%;第二,中国汽车进口将有大幅提升,从欧盟、美国、日本等主要汽车出口经济体的汽车进口额将在2017年的基础上增加20%以上;第三,中国汽车行业生产者福利和政府关税收入分别年均减少34.4亿美元、14.1亿美元,但中国汽车消费者福利和社会净福利每年分别增加109.3亿美元、60.8亿美元。研究创新:构建了具有垄断竞争的可计算局部均衡模型,测度了中国下调汽车关税的福利效应。研究价值:为中国主动扩大进口政策的制定提供一定参考。
Research Objective: To evaluate the welfare effect of China's initiative to expand imports from the industry level. Research Methods: Using the improved GSIM model and global passenger car production and trade data in 2017,the welfare effects of China's tariff reduction were simulated. Research Findings: Firstly,the impact on China's automobile industry is limited,and the output,sales price and domestic sales of passenger cars in China will decrease by 1.0%,1.64% and 1.7% respectively on the basis of 2017;secondly,China's automobile imports will increase by more than 20% on the basis of 2017;thirdly,China's automobile imports from major automobile exporting countries such as the EU,US and Japan will increase by more than 20%.The automotive industry producer welfare and government tariff revenue will decrease by USMYM3.44 billion and USMYM1.41 billion annually respectively,but the welfare of Chinese automotive consumers and net social welfare increased by USMYM10.93 billion and USMYM6.08 billion annually,respectively. Research Innovations: A computable partial equilibrium model with monopoly competition is constructed to measure the welfare effect of China's automobile tariff cut. Research Value: To provide some reference for the policy formulation of China's initiative to expand imports.
作者
向洪金
邝艳湘
徐振宇
Xiang Hongjin;Kuang Yanxiang;Xu Zhenyu(School of Economics,Nanjing Audit University)
出处
《数量经济技术经济研究》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第4期120-138,共19页
Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金项目"贸易便利化福利效应的微观机理
实证检验与政策设计:基于企业异质性贸易模型的研究(71473082)"
"江苏省333高层次人才培养工程"
"江苏省青蓝工程"
"江苏省高校优势学科建设工程资助项目"的资助
