摘要
面对新一届美国政府退出《巴黎协定》,中国政府要不要落实《巴黎协定》的减排承诺,继续投身国际环境合作?作为《巴黎协定》的早期探索版本,2005年生效的《京都议定书》可为相关政策效果评估提供一个较好的"反事实框架"。为此,本文以《京都议定书》唯一的南北国环境合作项目"清洁发展机制"(CDM)为研究对象,手工搜集国内3027个工厂级CDM项目的空间地理信息,构造包含30773个观测点的2001—2012年空间面板数据,以双重差分法实证检验了《京都议定书》的政策效果,并量化出中国在近年全球环境治理中的减排贡献。结果表明:《京都议定书》及其清洁发展机制的实施,对控制中国温室气体排放量产生了显著而积极的政策效果。与国内大部分环境规制文献不同,本文不局限于研究某一次宏观环境政策变动对经济社会的影响,而是使用更微观的工厂级清洁生产项目及其附近的污染物数据,进行较科学而细致的公共政策评估。本文的实证结果可为当前我国政府应对美国退出《巴黎协定》提供部分决策依据,更回应了部分发达国家对《京都议定书》减排效果和发展中国家没有承担减排责任的政治质疑。
We return to the theoretical foundations of Nordhaus(1982)to explore the impacts of greenhouse gases(GHGs)on the green development of economies.Our research results confirm two of the three major policy implications of Nordhaus'paper:externalities are at the core of environmental regulation behavior and different(optimal)environmental regulation methods lead to different(better)outcomes.The Kyoto Protocol(KP),the first global environmental governance program of the international community,rationally uses the externalities from North-South cooperation on clean production technologies instead of implementing a more radical“Pigovian tax”on countries.This means that the Clean Development Mechanism(CDM),a relatively mitigating international environmental regulation method,has had more positive policy effects.In this paper,we explore the strategic approach of developing countries to coping with the rise of international conservatism and the constant setbacks to global environmental governance.On June 1,2017,U.S.President Trump announced that the federal government would cease to implement the Paris Agreement(PA)and immediately stopped follow-up treaty payments.As the largest developing country,how should China respond to this major change?Should it implement the PA and continue to actively participate in(or even lead)global environmental governance?The KP came into effect in 2005,before the conclusion of the PA.It undoubtedly provided a reference point for the design and operation of the PA,which was an improvement based on the experience with the KP.To some extent,the policy effects of the KP reflect the policy prospects of the PA for global energy conservation and green development.We regard the only CDM connecting the North and the South under the KP as a public policy experiment of international environmental cooperation.We manually collect spatial geographic information from 3,027 factory-level CDM projects in China and construct a spatial panel data covering 30,773 observation points from 2001 to 2012.The dif
作者
陈林
万攀兵
CHEN Lin;WAN Panbing(Institute of Industrial Economics,Jinan University;Research Center of Low Carbon Economy for Guangzhou Region,Jinan University)
出处
《经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第3期55-71,共17页
Economic Research Journal
基金
教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目(17JZD013)
国家自然科学基金面上项目(71773039)
广东产业发展与粤港澳台区域合作研究中心资助项目(52702497)资助
关键词
国际环境合作
《巴黎协定》
《京都议定书》
清洁发展机制
温室气体减排
International Environmental Cooperation
the Paris Agreement
the Kyoto Protocol
Clean Development Mechanism
Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction
