摘要
近年来,以美国为首的官员、媒体、学者公开攻击中国为发展中国家带来"债务陷阱"。其实关于"一带一路"倡议的"债务陷阱论"源于印度学者及媒体的手笔。从斯里兰卡到巴基斯坦,再到尼泊尔和马尔代夫,印度对"债务陷阱论"的炒作呈现"内外互动"、"印西联动"的特点与趋势。一方面,"债务陷阱论"有效的前提是国家行为体内部的不团结,另一方面,印度与西方能够形成联动源于现实主义的权力政治传统。虽然"债务陷阱论"由印度学者及媒体炒作而起,却已经内化为印度的权力政治策略。这一点在马尔代夫权力更迭中得到验证。在印度的"债务陷阱论"策略中,印度洋上的岛国马尔代夫具有其他国家无可比拟的典型意义。很难说清楚信号释放者及"债务陷阱论"施动者是否相信"债务陷阱"的存在,但对于信奉权力传统的印度来说,真相居于次要地位,重要的是在马尔代夫国家权力的更迭中,印度以"债务陷阱论"为切入点,将国家间的权力政治影响发挥得淋漓尽致,也赢得了印度想要的结果。从长远来看,"债务陷阱论"权力策略的流行与运用对中国、中印双边关系及南亚地区的稳定均会造成严重的负面影响。
In recent years,China has come under attack,largely by US government officials,the media and US scholars for allegedly causing developing countries to fall into“debt traps”.The“debt trap theory”with respect to the Belt and Road Initiative was actually first coined by Indian scholars and the Indian media.From Sri Lanka to Pakistan,on to Nepal and the Maldives,India’s aggrandizement of the“debt trap theory”has been characterized by strategic“Internal and externalinteraction”and coordination between India and the West,and has evolved as a strategy.A precondition for the“debt trap theory”strategy to be effective is the lack of unity between various actors within a given state,and coordination between India and the West is linked to Realist power politics tradition.As the theory of the debt trap has been spun by Indian scholars and the media,it has been gradually internalized as a strategy for Indian power politics.This has been verified particularly in the case of the Maldives.A key part of India’s“debt trap theory”strategy,the Maldives,as an island state in the Indian ocean has significance for India which no other state can match.India has systematically spread messages advancing the theory of the debt trap visàvis the Maldives,and the reality is that those involved in this likely do not even believe in the veracity of the theory.Nonetheless,as far as India is concerned,truth takes a secondary positionwhat is more important is that India can use the fear generated by the debt trap theory in a weakened Maldives as an entry point for influencing power politics between states,and for achieving progress towards Indian strategic objectives.Over the longer term,the application of the debt trap theory strategy is likely to have negative impacts on bilateral relations between India and China as well as on regional stability in South Asia more broadly.
作者
杨思灵
高会平
Yang Siling;Gao Huiping
出处
《南亚研究》
CSSCI
2019年第1期55-81,146,147,共29页
South Asian Studies
