摘要
2018年,工业企业利润增速数据面临两大悬疑:为何官方数据平稳,而事实上却有大量企业面临经营困难,数据是否可信?如果用结构分化来解释这种矛盾,那么工业企业的结构分化有多严重?本文结合去杠杆的背景分析指出,在2018年,由于融资成本的急剧分化,工业企业经营状况也出现了显著分化。这体现为国有、民营企业的分化,还体现在不同规模、不同细分行业的分化。这可能影响短期宏观经济稳定,还可能影响到新兴产业的发展空间,进而影响到中长期增长动能。政策需跳出短期宏观调控框架,回到、并且审视供给侧结构性改革的视角,通过构建有效的市场机制,保护和激发企业家精神,培育微观主体的活力,从而增强中国经济系统的韧性。
With the cyclical weakening of the Chinese economy, many scholars have questioned the data of industrial enterprises profits: Constantly we read news about enterprises running into trouble in 2018, while the corporate profits data is relatively stable. Is it incompatible? If the answer is structural differentiation among industrial enterprises, then how seriously is such differentiation? Taking into consideration China’s deleveraging initiative, this article points out the remarkable divergence between SOEs and private enterprises, which is mainly due to financing cost variance. The structural divergence can also be reflected by industrial enterprises in different scales and sub-industries. Consequently, this may deteriorate investment demand and affect industrial upgrading. We should seriously reconsider the policy framework beyond the coordination between monetary and fiscal policy and go back to the essential of supply-side reforms.
出处
《国际经济评论》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第2期112-122,7,共12页
International Economic Review
