摘要
为探索“保险+期货”模式中目标价格难题,以大豆、玉米、粳米为例,运用Johansen检验、Granger关系检验、VECM-PT模型等方法,从定性、定量两方面分析了三者期货市场的价格发现功能,认为目前农产品期货市场具备良好的价格发现功能,但滞后性较强;不具备双向因果关系等问题。据此提出了对“保险+期货”模式进行分品种、渐进式的推广,完善期货市场信息传递机制,建立完备的现货市场体系等建议,助力“保险+期货”模式的推广。
To explore the target price problems in“insurance+futures”mode,this paper uses Johansen test,Granger causality test and VECM-PT to analyze the price discovery function of futures market qualitatively and quantitatively with soybean,corn and polished round-grained rice as samples,and comes to the conclusion that the current agricultural futures market has fine price discovery function but with stronger lags and without two-way causality.Based on the above,this paper puts forward the classified and evolutionary spread of“insurance+futures”mode,improving information transmission mechanism of futures market and establishment of mature currency market system to help to promote the“insurance+futures”mode.
作者
辛立秋
王辉
XIN Li-qiu;WANG Hui(School of Economics Northeast Agricultural University,Harbin Heilongjiang 150030)
出处
《价格月刊》
北大核心
2018年第7期22-26,共5页
基金
2015年黑龙江省软科学项目“黑龙江省农村金融服务水平测度及影响因素分析”(编号:GC16D113)
黑龙江省哲学社会科学研究一般项目“金融包容促进精准扶贫与脱贫长效机制与对策研究”(编号:17JYB082)
