摘要
省际贸易对于中国应对国际贸易不确定性风险,尤其是中美贸易摩擦的冲击、促进全国经济增长具有重要影响。然而,关于省际贸易网络的研究却很薄弱。本文从网络分析的角度,基于2015年省际铁路货运量数据,分析了中国省际贸易的网络特征,并使用指数随机图模型分析了省际贸易网络的影响因素。结果表明,省际贸易网络覆盖范围广且层次分化明显,省际贸易流向及规模不平衡;在省际贸易网络中,已形成了华北及东北子网络、华东及华中子网络、华南及西南子网络、西北子网络;各省区市的省内贸易、煤炭生产量、四大区域战略、各省区市之间的空间距离等因素对省际贸易网络具有不同的影响。因此,我们要善于利用其中的积极影响因素,控制消极影响因素,促进省际贸易网络发展,为增强经济增长的内生动力、实现高质量发展做出积极贡献。
Inter-provincial trade has an important impact on China’s response to uncertain risks in international trade,especially the impact of Sino-US trade frictions,and the promotion of national economic growth.However,the research on inter provincial trade networks is scarce.From the perspective of network analysis,this paper first analyzes the characteristics of China’s inter-provincial trade network by using the 2015 inter-provincial railway freight volume data,and then exploits the exponential stochastic graph model to analyze the influencing factors of inter-provincial trade network.The results indicate that the inter-provincial trade network covers a wide range and has obvious hierarchical differentiation,and the inter-provincial trade flows and scale are unbalanced.In the inter-provincial trade network,there are already the North China and Northeast China’sub-networks,East and Central China’sub-networks,South and Southwest sub-networks,and Northwest China’sub-network.The intra-provincial trade,coal production,four-regional strategies,and the spatial distance between provinces have different impacts on the inter-provincial trade network.Therefore,we should make good use of the positive factors,control the negative factors,promote the development of inter-provincial trade network,and help enhance the endogenous impetus of economic development and achieve high-quality development.
作者
侯传璐
覃成林
HOU Chuanlu;QIN Chenglin(Jinan University,510632)
出处
《财贸经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第3期116-129,共14页
Finance & Trade Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金重点项目"基于多极网络空间组织的区域协调发展机制深化及创新研究"(17AJL11)
暨南大学项目(JDZX04)
经纬粤港澳大湾区经济发展研究院资助
关键词
省际贸易
贸易网络
指数随机图模型
Interprovincial Trade
Trade Network
Exponential Random Graph Models
