摘要
目的建立预测胰腺手术术后胰瘘(pancreatic fistula,PF)发生风险的列线图。方法回顾分析2000年1月至2018年10月中国医科大学附属盛京医院因胰腺疾病行胰腺部分切除手术的540例患者临床资料。以是否发生胰瘘分组,统计分析患者的临床特征与胰瘘发生的关系,建立预测胰瘘发生风险的列线图。结果年龄、性别、肿瘤良恶性、手术时长、吻合方式、术后第1天引流淀粉酶OR值分别为3.878,3.277,12.822,7.900,0.034,0.346(P<0.05),是胰瘘发生的独立危险因素。使用胰瘘发病的风险因素建立的该病风险预测列线图,C指数为0.758。结论胰瘘风险预测列线图的模型符合度较高,简单易行,可以用于个体化评估患者发生胰瘘的风险。
Objective To develop a nomogram predicting the risk of pancreatic fistula(PF)in individual cases and to facilitate clinical frontline staff to predict risk of PF.Methods This study was based on the statistical analysis of the patients who were diagnosed as pancreatic diseases and underwent pancreatic resection in our hospital between 2000 and 2018.Patients were divided into two groups including PF group or non-PF(NPF)group.Risk factors of PF were determined by Logistic regression analysis.A PF risk nomogram was built by R soft.Results Age,gender,malignancy,operation time,method of surgical anastomosis,amylase level of the first day drainage after surgery were independent risk factors.The OR values were 3.8878,3.277,12.822,7.900,0.034 and 0.346,respectively(P<0.05).The C-index of nomogram was 0.758.Conclusion We have developed a nomogram to predict the risk of PF with high consistency,which could be used in disease diagnosis.
作者
徐翠
齐向秀
XU Cui;QI Xiangxiu(Pancreatic and Thyroid Endocrine Surgery Department,ShengJing Hospital of China Medical University,Shenyang 110004,China)
出处
《大连医科大学学报》
CAS
2019年第1期41-46,共6页
Journal of Dalian Medical University
基金
辽宁省自然科学基金项目(20180550971)
关键词
胰瘘
风险因素
临床观察
列线图
pancreatic fistula
risk factors
clinical observation
nomogram
