摘要
中美实力对比的变化将对现存国际秩序造成怎样的影响,权力转移论和新自由制度主义对此给出了不同的预测。权力转移论认为,国际秩序是国家间实力对比的反映,当实力对比发生变化后,崛起国会推翻既有国际秩序。权力转移论者判定,伴随着中美实力差距的缩小,中国将会重塑美国主导的国际秩序,而这将引发与美国的冲突;权力转移论者将中国最近的一些外交行动视作其重塑国际秩序的表现。新自由制度主义则认为,国际秩序中的制度不仅能为各国创造共同利益,还能通过调整,消化实力对比变化给自身带来的震动。新自由制度主义者认为,随着中美实力对比发生变化,既有国际秩序也能适应中国崛起,中国近期的外交创新是在弥补既有秩序的不足,中美也能继续保持关系稳定。中美需理性认识彼此相对实力的变化,为讨论既有国际秩序的走向奠定坚实的基础;中国也应该从自身正当的国家利益出发,理性对待现存国际秩序;学界也需尝试提炼一个研究一国在国际秩序中角色的新框架,为准确描述新时代中国国际秩序实践打下理论基础。
Two competing theories,namely,power transition vs.neoliberal institutionalism,have made different predictions about the net effects of changes in Sino-U.S.power balance on international order.Power transition theory maintains that as a reflection of the distribution of material power among nation-states,the current international order will be overturned after China,the leading emerging power,exceeded the United States,the hegemon.Advocates of this theory point to Beijing’s recent assertiveness as evidence of the emerging power’s attempt to rewrite international rules in its favor.Neoliberal institutionalists insist that the current rules-based order is resilient enough to accommodate and absorb the shock waves attendant upon a new great power’s rise and justify China’s behavior as necessary reforms to build a more robust and sustainable world order.Beijing as the ascendant power should try its best to stabilize the Sino-U.S.relationship and advance a new framework to explore the proper role of a rising power in international order.
出处
《国际展望》
CSSCI
2019年第2期21-39,150,共20页
Global Review
