摘要
利用50个国家的数据,采用倍差法(DID),选取了2012年至2016年的月度数据,通过研究2015年8月11日汇改(文中简称"新汇改")对我国向美国的出口的变化,来评估此次政策的效应。倍差法分析表明,平均而言,新汇改导致我国对美国的出口额显著提高约25.8%,且符合平行趋势假设,表明新汇改的实施过程中并不存在事先挑选赢家行为。此外,考察不同窗宽以及不同处理组对结果的影响,并尝试分析此次汇改是贸易转移效应还是创造效应,得出的结论都支持主回归中的结果。
Based on the data from 50 countries and the method of difference in differences (DID), we select the monthly data from 2012 to 2016 and focus on the changes of exports from China to the USA after the new reform of exchange rate since August 11, 2015, so as to evaluate the influences of this policy. Analysis by DID indicates that, on the average, the total amount of exports from China to the USA increases by about 25.8% and complies with parallel trend hypothesis, which suggests that there was no predetermination of the winner in the implementation of the new reform. Besides, in order to find out whether the new reform causes trade transferences or creation effects, we probe into the influences of different bandwidths and different treatment groups, and the conclusions are also in accordance with the results of principal regression.
作者
楚尔鸣
王真
CHU Er-ming;WANG Zhen(School of Business, Xiangtan University, Xiangtan 411105, China)
出处
《南通大学学报（社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第1期93-98,共6页
Journal of Nantong University:Social Sciences Edition
基金
国家自然科学基金项目"空间非一致性
房地产价格波动与最优货币政策选择研究"(71273221)
关键词
新汇改
出口
倍差法
the new reform of exchange rate
export
difference in differences (DID)
