摘要
当前逆全球化思潮兴起引发国内外关于贸易政策取向选择的重新审视。本文将关税、补贴等显性贸易壁垒和央行竞争性贬值政策引入两国一般均衡模型,深入分析各类贸易保护政策的宏观经济效应并探讨其作用机制,最后通过反事实模拟系统考察经济开放度日益提高情形下贸易保护政策的经济福利变化。研究发现,尽管关税、补贴等贸易保护政策短期能达到"奖出限入"目的,但其对宏观经济亦存在显著负面效应;贸易保护政策的利率影响机制对宏观经济的影响相对显性贸易壁垒更大且国际货币政策对本国经济存在较大溢出;经济开放程度的提升会削弱显性贸易保护政策的挤入效应并抑制货币政策有效性。鉴于此,本文认为贸易保护主义不应成为中国贸易政策的现实选择,同时央行有必要通过加强国际货币政策协调以降低外部经济对本国经济的负面冲击。
The rise of the anti-globalization has led to a re-examination of the trade policy orientation at home and abroad.This paper introduces the explicit trade barriers such as tariffs and subsidies,and competitive monetary depreciation policies into the generalized equilibrium model through which we can analyze the macroeconomic effects of various trade protection policies and explore the mechanisms in depth.Finally,the paper studies the economic welfare changes as the economic openness increases through the counter-factual simulation system.The study finds that there are significant negative effects on the macroeconomy although trade protection policies such as tariffs and subsidies can achieve the purpose of stimulating exports and restricting import in the short term;the impacts of the interest rate on the macroeconomy are relatively more significant than other trade protection policies and the international monetary policy has a large spillover to our economy;the improvement of the economic openness will weaken the positive effects of the explicit trade protection policies and curb the effectiveness of monetary policy.In view of these,this paper holds that trade protectionism should not become a realistic choice of China's trade policies.In addition,it is necessary for the central bank to strengthen international monetary policy coordination to reduce the negative impacts of external economy on domestic economy.
作者
杨源源
于津平
Yang Yuanyuan;Yu Jinping(School of Economics,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210093,China)
出处
《南开经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第1期100-116,共17页
Nankai Economic Studies
基金
国家社科基金重大研究专项"推动‘一带一路’贸易和投资自由化便利化研究:量化评价与推进战略"(18VDL014)
国家社科基金重大项目"经济发展新常态下中国金融开放
金融安全与全球金融风险研究"(17ZDA037)
国家社科基金后期资助项目"结构性财政调控与新常态下财政政策转型研究"(17FJY008)
国家自科青年基金项目"影子银行扩张背景下中国货币政策与宏观审慎政策的协调研究"(71803127)
教育部人文社科青年基金项目"影子银行与中国双支柱调控框架优化研究"(18YJC790030)的资助
关键词
贸易保护
经济开放度
一般均衡模型
Trade Protection
Economy Openness
General Equilibrium Model
