摘要
目的采用灰色系统GM(1,1)模型预测徐州市甲乙类呼吸道传染病发病趋势。方法根据2010—2016年徐州市甲乙类呼吸道传染病发病率数据建立GM(1,1)预测模型,并对2017—2019年甲乙类呼吸道传染病发病趋势进行预测。结果建立的GM(1,1)预测模型为:Y^(t+1)=-1 095.349 8e-0.056 1t+1 170.739 8,拟合精度和预测效果较好。2017—2019年徐州市甲乙类呼吸道传染病发病率预测值分别为42.68/10万、40.35/10万、38.14/10万,呈下降趋势(P<0.01)。结论GM(1,1)模型较好地拟合了徐州市甲乙类呼吸道传染病发病率的变化趋势,可以应用于发病率的预测,对甲乙类呼吸道传染病的防控和防治策略的制定具有一定的参考意义。
Objective To predict incidence trend of class A and B infectious respiratory diseases in Xuzhou city by grey systemic GM(1,1) model. Methods GM(1,1) forecast model was established according to the incidence rates of class A and B infectious respiratory diseases in Xuzhou from 2010 to 2016, which was used to forecast the incidence trend of infectious respiratory diseases from 2017 to 2019. Results The established GM(1,1) model of incidence rate of class A and B infectious respiratory diseases was: Y(t)=- 1 095.3498e^-0.0561t +1170.739 8. The fitting accuracy and prediction effect of the model were good. The forecasting incidence rates of class A and B infectious respiratory diseases in Xuzhou from 2017 to 2019 were 42.68/10 5 ,40.35/10 5 and 38.14/10 5 ,respectively, demonstrating a descending trend( P <0.01). Conclusion The GM(1,1) model fits well and predicts the dynamic trends of the incidences of class A and B infectious respiratory diseases. It is feasible to apply it to predict the incidence rates, which can be used as reference to make strategies for prevention and control of class A and B infectious respiratory diseases.
作者
安晓红
AN Xiao-hong(Xuzhou Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jiangsu Xuzhou 221006, China)
出处
《江苏预防医学》
CAS
2019年第1期33-35,共3页
Jiangsu Journal of Preventive Medicine
关键词
呼吸道传染病
GM(1
1)预测模型
发病率
Infectious respiratory disease
GM(1,1) forecast model
Incidence rate
