摘要
采用趋势分析、相关分析、Morlet小波函数和M-K突变检验等方法,分析位于塔里木盆地南缘的8个气象站点平均风速的变化趋势、变化周期、突变情况和变化机制.研究结果表明:1961-2013年间塔里木盆地南缘各气象站点的平均风速为1.61～2.50m·s^(-1),风速的年际差异较小;各站点的风速递减速率为0.01～0.29m·s^(-1)·(10a)^(-1),存在明显差异,平均速率和西北地区整体变化速率一致,但仍具有区域特殊性,不同于西北地区整体变化过程和北疆的变化过程;各研究点风速变化波动周期在4a、15～18a较为一致,但在其他研究中发现的8～10a的波动周期在本研究区不同研究点之间差异较大;喀什、民丰平均风速突变时间为1974年,皮山、和田为1973年,且末、于田分别为1984年和1981年,莎车、若羌没有突变点,说明突变情况差异较大.
The analysis of variation of mean wind speed in south-rim of the Tarim Basin,is performed using wind speed series at 8 meteorological stations over the period 1961-2013.Spatio-temporal trends,periodic oscillation,abrupt changes and mechanism are evaluated by climate diagnosis methods including trend analysis,Pearson correlation analysis,Morlet wavelet analysis and Mann-Kendall test.The conclusion is as follows:(1)In the studied area,the interannual variation of wind speed is very small,and annual average wind speed ranges from 1.61 to 2.50 m·S^-1 over the whole study period.There is a significant difference in the deceleration rate of wind speed at each station which varies from 0.01 to 0.29 m·s^-1·(10a)^-1;the deceleration rate of wind speed in the study region consists with the northwest region.The study area has its own regional characteristics which is different from the northwest region and northern xinjing.(2)The fluctuation periods of wind speed are 4a,15~18 a in the studied area.However,there is a periods of 8~10 a in other studies which is different with our study.(3)The abrupt change of average annual wind speed appears in 1974 at Kashi and Minfeng,and in 1973 at Pishan and Hetian;the abrupt change of Qiemo and Yutian emerge in 1984 and 1981,respectively;no abrupt occurs in Ruoqiang and Shache.The results show that there is a great difference in the abrupt years in the studied area.
作者
许善洋
石培宏
薛治国
张凯
XU Shan-yang;SHI Pei-hong;XUE Zhi-guo;ZHANG Kai(School of Life and Geographical Sciences,Kashgar University,Kashgar 844008,Xinjiang,China;College of Tourism and Environment,Shaanxi Normal University,Xi'an 710119,China)
出处
《内蒙古师范大学学报（自然科学汉文版）》
CAS
2019年第1期21-27,共7页
Journal of Inner Mongolia Normal University(Natural Science Edition)
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(41401226)
喀什大学基金项目((14)2515)
关键词
风速
波动周期
突变分析
塔里木盆地
wind speed
fluctuation period
abrupt analysis
Tarim Basin
