摘要
本文采用时间序列方法研究税收收入与进出口贸易总额、财政支出之间关系,研究结果表明,这3个序列都是非平稳的。取自然对数并做一阶差分之后序列变为平稳,在进行Johansen协整检验时得出序列之间有1个协整向量,利用取对数之后的序列做多元时间序列VARX模型能够很好地解释税收收入、进出口贸易总额、财政支出之间的关系。
Time series knowledge is used to study the relationship between tax revenue,net export trade and fiscal expenditure.It is concluded that all the three sequences are non-stationary,but after taking the natural logarithm and making the first difference,the sequence becomes stationary.In the Johansen cointegration test,it can be concluded that there is one co-integration vector between sequences.VARX model of multiple time series based on the logarithmic sequence can well explain the relationship between tax revenue,total import and export trade and fiscal expenditure.
作者
吴旭辉
Wu Xuhui(College of Statistics and Information,Xinjiang University of Finance and Economics,Urumqi,Xinjiang 830012)
出处
《粮食科技与经济》
2018年第12期116-118,共3页
Food Science And Technology And Economy
