摘要
基于自回归滑动平均(auto regressive moving average,ARMA)模型建立了水环境承载力超载预警模型,应用2001—2014年的全国水环境数据,对2015—2017年的水环境承载力超载状态进行了预警研究。结果表明:2016年水环境承载力超载状态综合指数为1. 39,可能出现警情,主要是由于水环境容量承载率超载造成的,建议采取增加污水治理设备数、减少COD和氨氮排放量等措施以预防警情的发生。
Based on ARMA(auto regressive moving average)model,an overload warning model of water environment carrying capacity was developed.By using the national water environment data from 2001 to 2014,the overload status of water environment carrying capacity from 2015 to 2017 was studied.The results showed that the comprehensive index of overload state of water environmental carrying capacity was 1.39 in 2016,which may cause alarm.It is suggested that measures such as increasing the number of sewage treatment equipment,reducing COD and ammonia nitrogen emissions should be taken to prevent the occurrence of alarm.
作者
刘丹
王烜
曾维华
李春晖
蔡宴朋
LIU Dan;WANG Xuan;ZENG Weihua;LI Chunhui;CAI Yanpeng(State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;Key Laboratory for Water and Sediment Sciences of Ministry of Education,School of Environment,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;Beijing Engineering Research Center for Watershed Environmental Restoration and Integrated Ecological Regulation,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China)
出处
《水资源保护》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第1期52-55,69,共5页
Water Resources Protection
基金
"十三五"国家重点研发计划(2017YFC0404505
2016YFC0401302)
国家自然科学基金(51679008)
关键词
水环境承载力
ARMA模型
超载预警
water environment carrying capacity
ARMA model
overload warning
