摘要
在社会经济快速发展的背景下,中国铁路运输能力的提升落后于客运需求的快速增长,铁路供需矛盾日益突出。在考虑了潜在客运需求的条件下,构建了铁路客运供需缺口的估算模型,运用1978～2016年间的数据来测算铁路客运需求和供需缺口的变动。实证结果表明,客运需求增长了185. 57%,当前铁路客运缺口率为46. 38%。导致客运需求总量迅速增长的主要原因在于国民经济的发展、铁路运输条件的改善和定价机制的失效;而客运供需缺口居高不下的主要原因则是投资渠道单一导致建设资金不足,以及政企权责划分不清引发运输效率低下。因此,应通过推行差异化定价机制、加快铁路投融资体制改革、实施"统分结合的网运分离"等措施,分流客运需求,提高铁路供给效率,从而实现需求与供给的相对均衡。
In the context of rapid social and economic development,China’s railway transport capacity has lagged behind the fast growth of passenger demand,and the contradiction between demand and supply of passenger transportation has become increasingly prominent.The paper constructs a model to estimate the demand-supply condition,which considers the potential passenger transportation demand.By using the data between 1978 and 2016,the paper measures the changes of railway passenger transportation demand and the demand-supply gap.The empirical results show that the passenger transportation demand increased by 185.57%,and the current demand-supply gap is 46.38%.The main reasons for the rapid growth of passenger demand are the development of national economy,the improvement of railway transport conditions and the failure of pricing mechanism.However,the main reasons for the high demand-supply gap are insufficient social capital and unclear division of government and enterprises.Therefore,to realize the relative balance of demand and supply,it’s necessary to implement the differential pricing mechanism,deepen the investment and financing system reform,and separate infrastructure management from transport operation.
作者
于良春
姜俊艳
Yu Liangchun;Jiang Junyan
出处
《广东社会科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第1期26-34,254,共10页
Social Sciences in Guangdong
基金
国家自然科学基金项目"中国产业政策与竞争政策的有效性及协调机制研究"(项目号71473151)的阶段性成果
