摘要
针对土石坝渗流安全预测预警,依据土体渗透变形试验成果,采用重标度极差分析方法(R/S分析),阐释了渗流时间序列具有分形标度不变性,揭示了渗流时间序列具有趋势性和随机性双重特性。针对土体渗透变形的孕育—形成—发展—破坏全过程演变特点,结合时间序列性质强弱程度与渗流安全稳定状态,从定量角度提出了大坝渗流分维数指标、趋势性指标及预警等级划分标准,绘制了大坝渗透变形预警指标分布图,并应用于磨盘山水库工程,分析了土石坝异常断面渗流性态,预测了心墙土体渗透变形发展趋势,论证了土石坝渗流分形预警指标的实用性和可行性。研究结果为土石坝渗流异常原因甄别及突发事件应急处置提供了参考和技术支撑。
Aiming at the prediction and early-warning of seepage safety for earth-rockfill dam,the fractal scale invariance of time series of seepage is expounded and then the dual characteristics of both the tendency and randomness of the time series of seepage is revealed with the method of rescaled range analysis(R/S)in accordance with the experimental result of soil mass seepage deformation.Targeting at the evolution characteristics of the full process of inoculation-formation-development-failure of soil mass seepage,the fractal dimension index and the tendency index as well as the early-warning level classification standard of the seepage of the dam are quantitatively proposed and the seepage deformation early-warning index distribution graph is made in combination with the degree of the time series strength and the status of the seepage safety and stability,which are then applied to the project of Mopanshan Reservoir;in which the behavior of the abnormal cross-section seepage is analyzed and the developing trend of the seepage deformation of the soil mass of core-wall is predicted,while the practicability and feasibility of the fractal earlywarning indexes for the seepage of earth-rockfill dam are demonstrated as well.The study result provides some references and technical support for identifying the abnormal cause of the seepage from earth-rockfill dam and emergently dealing with the relevant sudden event.
作者
王宇
陈超
陈祥勇
WANG Yu;CHEN Chao;CHEN Xiangyong(Huatian Engineering and Technology Corporation,MCC,Nanjing 210019,Jiangsu,China;Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,Nanjing 210029,Jiangsu,China)
出处
《水利水电技术》
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第11期68-74,共7页
Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering
基金
水利部公益性行业科研专项项目(201501033)
关键词
渗流安全
预测预警
渗透变形
分形指标
R/S分析
seepage safety
prediction and early-warning
seepage deformation
fractal index
R/S analysis
