摘要
针对PPP模式下准经营性项目风险因素的复杂性和不确定性,利用文献阅读和案例分析方法,识别出影响PPP准经营性项目成败的6个一级风险影响因素和34个二级风险影响因素。采用DEMATEL模型对一级风险因素的影响程度进行分析,基于ISM模型划分层级结构;其次,运用模糊综合法确定二级风险因素的重要性。结果表明,建设风险、环境风险、管理风险和经营风险是直接影响因素,经济风险在系统中是间接因素,政策法律风险是深层根源因素。该研究完善了PPP模式下准经营性项目风险评价方法,有利于PPP模式在准经营项目中的推广。
To demonstrate the complexity and uncertainty of risks on quasi-operating projects in the PPP mode,this essay highlighted the six primary risk factors and34secondary risk factors which were vital to the quasi-operational projects in PPP model.First,the DEMATEL model was used to analyze the influence of the six primary risk factors,and hierarchy of risks has been put forward based on the ISM model.Second,using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation,the authors determined the importance of secondary risk factors.It has turned out that the direct influencing factors include construction risk,the environment risk,the management risk and the operation risk;the economic risk is the indirect factor in the system;and the policy and legal risk are the deep factors.The study has improved the risk assessment method for quasi-operating projects in the PPP model,which helps to promote the PPP model in quasi-operating projects.
作者
牟玲玲
尹赛
齐丹
MU Lingling;YIN Sai;QI Dan(School of Economics and Management, Hebei University of Technology, TianJin 300401, China)
出处
《河北工业大学学报（社会科学版）》
2018年第4期15-21,共7页
Journal of Hebei University of Technology：Social Sciences Edition
基金
河北省社科基金项目(HB17GL030)
