摘要
受降雨时空分布不均和极端降雨频发等因素影响,公路水毁具有分散性、随机性和灾情差异性,对交通部门产生的经济损失也存在较大变化,如何快速有效估算公路水毁损失具有现实意义。根据研究区公路水毁特征概化出四种主要受灾类型,包括路堑边坡垮塌-积水淹没型、路堤穿堤构筑物淤塞-漫流型、弯道附属设施冲失型和行道植株断道型,直接经济损失主要由四种水毁类型对公路结构的损伤和破坏形成;考虑时间价值效应,将间接经济损失简化为增加的营运成本和旅客时间耗费损失;通过整合直接和间接经济损失,构建了公路水毁损失估算模型。以重庆市永川区S417永铜路水毁灾害为例,应用估算模型得出了经济损失,验证了估算方法具有一定的合理性,结果表明:(1)路堑边坡垮塌-积水淹没型和路堤穿堤构筑物淤塞-漫流型是形成研究区公路直接经济损失的主要部分,在快速估算经济损失时,可基于以上两种受灾类型统计结果,乘以扩大系数,得出直接经济损失;(2)间接经济损失属于隐性损失,但是体量远大于直接经济损失,对国民经济造成的影响不容忽视;(3)建立的估算新方法,可快速评估经济损失,保证灾情发布的时效性;(4)可进一步研究基于风险分析的主动经济投入预控措施,联合保险公司、公路养护部门等研讨公路水毁保险机制与养护维修方案,建立公路水毁重大灾情应急抢险工作机制,响应国家应急管理部工作部署,形成双赢、多赢新局面。研究成果可供公路养护维修、应急抢通工程科学编制预算参考。
Affected by factors such as the uneven space-time distribution of rainfall and extreme precipitation frequency, it is disperse, random and various in the degree of damage for the road flood damage, while it has significant changes to economic loss for the transport agency. Four main disaster types which consist of direct economic loss have been put forward according to the characteristics of road flood damage in the research region, including the cutting slope collapse induced inundation type, the clogging of embankment culvert induced sheetflood type, the washout of highway curves ancillary facility type and fallen roadside tree induced traffic block type. Consider the value of time effect, the indirect economic loss model is simplified as increased operating cost losses and the waste of passenger time. The economic loss model of roadway flood damage is established by combining the direct economic loss and indirect economic loss together. Put S417 Yongtong road in Yongchuan district Chongqing municipality as an example, the economic loss is obtained according to the estimation model and the result indicate:(1)The cutting slope collapse induced inundation type and the clogging of embankment culvert induced sheetflood type are the main part of direct economic loss in the research region, and the total direct economic loss can be estimated by the sum of the two.(2)the indirect economic loss belongs to recessive loss, but the quantity of which is much larger than the direct economic loss and can not be ignored in the whole national economy.(3)The new estimation method is useful to make a rapid estimation to the economic loss in order to ensure the timeliness of disaster information issues.(4)It is suggested that the proactive economic input control measures based on risk analyses should be further studied, by discussing the insurance mechanism of road water damage and maintenance scheme between insurance company and highway maintenance company, setting up a work mechanism of major disaster emergency rescue for road
作者
周福川
李佳坤
蒋金荣
陈远川
ZHOU Fuchuan;LI Jiakun;JIANG Jinrong;CHEN Yuanchuan(Chongqing Yuxi Surveying and Design Institute of Water Conservancy Electric Power and Architecture,Chongqing 402160,China;Collage of Civil Engineering and Architecture in Chongqing Universityof Arts and Sciences, Chongqing 402160, China;Road Management Office of Chongqing YongchuanDistrict Traffic Committee, Chongqing 402160, China;Sichuan Province University Key Laboratory ofBridge Non-destruction Detecting and Engineering Computing,Zigong 643000,China)
出处
《灾害学》
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第1期145-151,共7页
Journal of Catastrophology
基金
重庆市永川区科技计划项目(ycstc
2015nc6001)
桥梁无损检测与工程计算四川省高校重点实验室开放基金项目(2015QYJ07)
重庆市科委自然科学基金项目(cstc2014jcyjA30019)
重庆市教委科学技术项目(KJ1501131)
关键词
道路工程
直接经济损失
间接经济损失
公路水毁
受灾类型
highway engineering
direct economic loss
indirect economic loss
road flood damage
disaster type
