摘要
冰湖溃决是冰川区突发的严重山地灾害之一。目前,全球气候变暖,冰川普遍退缩,冰湖面积和溃决风险也随之增大。因此,冰湖溃决预警方法的研究对冰川地区防灾减灾有着重要的实际意义。现提供了一种综合考虑气温与降雨条件影响的冰湖溃决预警方法,选择预测日前期正积温逐日增长速度值与预测日前期30d累积降雨量作为气温和降雨的代表性指标,通过对2010年前发生的21例溃决事件统计,结合邻近21个气象台站的日均温和日降雨量资料分析,建立了冰湖溃决的预警警戒线和冰湖溃决预警系统流程。其后,选择2013年7月5日的然则日阿错冰湖溃决案例对建立的冰湖溃决预警系统进行验证,发现预警效果良好。
Glacial lake outburst floods(GLOFs)are serious disasters in glacial areas.At present,due to global warming,glaciers are generally diminishing;thus increasing the glacial lake area and the outburst risk.Therefore,the research on early warning methods for GLOFs is important to disaster prevention and relief in glacial areas.This paper proposes an early warning method using the temperature and rainfall as indices.We selected the daily growth rate of prior period positive cumulative temperature and the prior thirty-day cumulative rainfall as the representative indices of temperature and rainfall.Based on the statistics of the 21 outburst events before 2010 and the data from the 21 nearby meteorological stations,we built an outburst early warning threshold and a flow chart of the GLOF early warning system.The system was verified by the GLOF event in the Ranzeaco glacial lake on 2013-07-05.
作者
刘晶晶
马春
苏鹏程
LIU Jingjing;MA Chun;SU Pengcheng(Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Surface Process&Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences&Ministry of Water Conservancy,Chengdu 610041,China;State Key Laboratory of Hydraulics and Mountain River Engineering,Sichuan University,Chengdu 610065,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)
出处
《南水北调与水利科技》
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第6期1-8,共8页
South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology
基金
中国科学院西部之光重点项目(Y5R2040040)
国家自然科学基金(41877261
41571004)
中国科学院成都山地所"一三五"方向性项目(SDS-135-1701)
水力学与山区河流开发保护国家重点实验室开放基金(SKHL1516)~~
关键词
气温
降雨量
冰湖溃决
预警
temperature
rainfall
glacial lake outburst floods
early warning
