摘要
利用GM（1，1）模型对2009—2016年我国粮食主产区的粮食产量数据进行拟合消除其波动性，然后利用灰色关联模型分别对粮食主产区13个省的粮食生产及其影响因素进行灰色关联度计算并排序分析。结果表明：黑吉辽三省粮食生产的前三位影响因素均为农业机械总动力、粮食作物播种面积和粮食作物单产；黄淮海地区及长江中下游地区粮食生产的前三位影响因素均为粮食播种面积、粮食作物单产和农业农村劳动力；四川地区粮食生产的前三位影响因素为粮食作物单产、农业农村劳动力、粮食播种面积；内蒙古地区粮食生产的前三位影响因素为农业机械总动力、受灾面积、农业生产总值。从灰色关联分析的结果可以看出，地区的差异性带来影响因素的差异性和相近地理区域的相似性，可为各地相关政策的制定提供依据。
The paper simulates the grain yield from 2009 to 2016 to eliminate the fluctuation by GM(1,1)model,and then calculates and analyzes the grey correlation of the grain production and its influence factors of the main grain production area.It can be seen that the top three influence factors of grain production in Heilongjiang Jilin and Liaoning provinces are total agricultural machinery power,sown area of grain and the yield per unit area;The top three influence factors of grain productionin the Huang-Huai-Hai region and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River are grain sown area,yield per unit area,and agricultural and rural labor force;The top three influencing factors in grain production in Sichuan province are the yield per unit area,agricultural and rural labor force,and grain sown area;The top three influence factors in Inner Mongolia are total agricultural machinery power,disaster area and total value of agricultural production.From the results of the grey relational analysis,we can see the difference of the influencce factors brought by the regional differences and the similarity of similar geographical regions,which provide a theoretical basis for the formulation of relevant policies in various regions.
作者
杨卫明
李炳军
YANG Wei-ming;LI Bing-jun(College of Information and Management Science,Henan Agricultural University,Zhengzhou 450002,China)
出处
《广东农业科学》
CAS
2018年第9期151-156,174,共7页
Guangdong Agricultural Sciences
基金
河南省软科学项目(172400410015)
河南省哲学社会科学规划项目(2016BJJ022)
关键词
粮食主产区
GM(1
1)模型
灰色关联分析
影响因素
区域差异
main grain production area
GM(1,1)model
grey relational analysis
influence factors
regional differences
