摘要
在分析国内外秸秆资源现状的基础上,将我国的省份按照工业化水平分为七组,利用集成经验模态分解技术与神经网络相结合的方法,对我国秸秆生物质能利用问题进行研究。以2015年为基线情景,进行2020年的两种情景假设,分析秸秆利用对节能减排的贡献潜力。结果显示:如果秸秆转化为生物质能利用率提高到16%,那么可以节约6100万吨煤,减少9.65亿吨污染物的排放。但是提高到21%,在现有条件下的经济分析是不可行的。因此,地方政府应细化财政扶持政策,支持研发新技术,建立收储运体系,并鼓励相关企业参与碳排放交易市场。意义在于既能提高秸秆生物质能利用率,又能降低秸秆利用率提高带来的成本。
Based on the study of straw resources at home and abroad,this paper,by categorizing provinces in China into seven groups in terms of level of industrialization,studies the utilization of straw biomass in China using EEMD and BPNN.It takes the year 2015 as baseline scenario and makes assumptions on two scenarios for 2020 to analyze the contribution potential of straw utilization to energy conservation and emission reduction.The results show that if the utilization rate of straw-converted biomass in China increased to 16%,China can save 61 million tons of coal and reduce 965 million tons of pollutant emissions.However,economic feasibility analysis does not support a utilization rate of 21%or more under the current conditions.Therefore,it is suggested that local governments should refine their financial support policies,support the research and development of new technologies,establish a storage and transportation system,and encourage related enterprises to participate in the carbon emission trading market.The significance is that it not only improves the utilization rate of straw to biomass,but also reduces the cost of straw utilization.
作者
任继勤
REN Ji-qin(School of Economics and Management,Beijing University of Chemical Technology,Beijing 100029,China)
出处
《北京交通大学学报（社会科学版）》
2018年第4期79-87,共9页
Journal of Beijing Jiaotong University(Social Sciences Edition)
基金
国家社会科学基金面上项目"碳排放视角下超大城市绿色低碳发展路径研究"(16BGL007)
北京市社会科学基金一般项目"基于协同发展视角的京津冀地区净碳排放总量控制研究"(18GLB029)
关键词
秸秆
生物质能利用率
经济可行性分析
节能减排
straw
biomass energy utilization rate
economic feasibility analysis
energy conservation and emission reduction
