摘要
基于30个大中城市房价与人口迁移数据动态面板模型的回归结果显示:房价和人口迁移之间不是单纯的线性关系,而是呈倒U型,房价低于拐点时房价上涨会促进人口迁移,当房价高于拐点后,房价的上涨会对人口迁移形成负向抑制;人口迁移的重要拉力来自收入增长和城市经济基本面发展带来的引力,城市收入增长空间形成了对人口迁移的正向吸引,但从交互项回归结果看,房价在一定程度上抵消收入增长对人口迁移的拉动作用;城市经济基本面的可持续健康发展对人口迁移决策具有显著影响。
Based on the dynamic panel model of housing price and population migration data in 30 large and medium-sized cities,the regression results show:the relationship between housing prices and migration is not just linear,it's inverted U.When the housing price is lower than the inflection point,the increase of housing price will promote the population migration.When the housing price is higher than the inflection point,as the housing price rises,the population migration will be negatively restrained.The important pulling force of population migration comes from the gravity of income increase and urban economic development,but from the regression result of the cross term,the house price counteracts the pulling effect of the income growth to the population migration.And the sustainable development of urban economic fundamentals has a significant impact on population migration decisions.
作者
杨巧
陈诚
Yang Qiao;Chen Cheng(School of Finance,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Wuhan 430073,China)
出处
《经济与管理》
CSSCI
2018年第5期38-44,共7页
Economy and Management
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(14CRK015)
关键词
房价
人口
迁移
housing price
population
migration
