摘要
研究在泥石流物理模型中耦合分布式水文模型建立研究区域泥石流预报模型。模型利用潜势泥石流流域判识方法确定泥石流孕灾流域单元作为预报单元;采用GBHM分布式水文模型模拟泥石流发生的水文过程;基于无限边坡模型,利用安全系数判别坡面失稳过程;以流域径流和失稳土体耦合后的水土混合物密度作为泥石流预报标准实现区域泥石流预报。选取云南省作为区域泥石流预报试验区域,以2016年6月24日的云南强降水过程诱发的泥石流灾害为例,对该模型进行区域预报效果检验。结果表明,该预报模型成功预报出本次过程的三分之二泥石流灾害,具有较高的预报准确率和较强的适用性。
In this paper,a physically-based debris flow model,coupled with a distributed hydrological model,is developed for regional debris flow forecasting test.The debris flow basins,obtained by using potential debris flow basins identifying method,are taken as forecasting units.GBHM distributed hydrological model is applied for hydrological processes simulation during debris flow occurring.Based on the infinite slope model,the slope stability is determined by the safety factor.The density of water-soil mixture with basin runoff and unstable soil volume is applied for the regional debris flow forecasting.The model is implemented and evaluated in Yunnan province,where heavy rainfall triggered debris flow on 24 June 2016.Results show that the forecast model successfully predicts two-thirds of debris flow disasters in this process,and has a high accuracy of prediction and strong applicability.
作者
包红军
王凯
张少杰
王莉莉
刘敦龙
张珂
BAO Hongjun;WANG Kai;ZHANG Shaojie;WANG Lili;LIU Dunlong;ZHANG Ke(National Meteorological Center,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081;Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Chengdu 610041;College of Software engineering,Chengdu University of Information Technology,Chengdu 610225;College of hydrology and Water Recourses,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098;State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098)
出处
《暴雨灾害》
2018年第4期303-310,共8页
Torrential Rain and Disasters
基金
国家重点研发计划(2016YFC0402702)
国家自然科学基金项目(41775111
51509043)
中国气象局首批青年英才计划项目(2014-2017)
水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室基金项目(20165042212)
关键词
泥石流
水土耦合
孕灾流域单元
GBHM分布式水文模型
区域
debris flow
coupled hydrological-geotechnical framework
debris flow basin unit
GBHM distributed hydrological model
regional
