摘要
贝叶斯统计推理正在发展成为当前国际法庭科学证据评价的标准逻辑框架。它基于先验知识和证据信息对某一事件发生的可能性(假设是否成立)进行逻辑推理和概率估计。在贝叶斯框架下的法庭科学证据评价中,法庭专家基于起诉假设和辩护假设,对这两种竞争假设条件下获得证据的概率比——似然比进行统计评估,量化表明证据的价值。法庭事实裁定者通过似然比来更新其原有信念并进行事实推定。这是法庭科学领域的技术方法革新,也是科学证据采信及评价方面的进步,对法庭证据的科学应用和案件的科学审理具有重要意义。
Bayesian statistical inference is currently being developed into an international standard logical framework for the evaluation of forensic evidence.It uses prior knowledge and evidence information to evaluate the occurring probability of an event(if a hypothesis is true)through statistical inference and probability estimation.For the evaluation of forensic evidence by Bayesian framework,the forensic expert will first make statistical evaluation on the ratio of the probabilities of obtaining evidence given two competitive hypotheses(prosecution and defense hypothesis)-likelihood ratio,quantitatively demonstrating the value of the evidence.Then,the court arbitrators will calculate the posterior odds of factual proof under the two hypotheses given the evidence from the likelihood ratio multiplied by prior odds.Finally,the arbitrators will update their prior beliefs using likelihood ratios,making the inference on the factual proof.This is not only the innovation of forensic science but also the advance in the admission and evaluation of forensic evidence,therefore being of high significance for driving the scientific application of forensic evidence and judicial civilization.
作者
张翠玲
谭铁君
ZHANG Cuiling;TAN Tiejun(School of Criminal Investigation,Southwest University of Political Science and Law,Chongqing 401120,China;Chongqing Forensic Scientific Key Laboratory for Higher Education,Chongqing 401120,China)
出处
《刑事技术》
2018年第4期265-271,共7页
Forensic Science and Technology
基金
国家社科基金重点项目(No.16AYY015)
西南政法大学人才引进项目(No.2015-XZRCXM003)
重庆市社会事业与民生保障科技创新专项重点研发项目(No.cstc2017shms-zdyf X0060)
关键词
贝叶斯统计推理
法庭科学
证据评价
范式转换
似然比
Bayesian statistical inference
forensic science
evidence evaluation
paradigm shift
likelihood ratio
