摘要
"一带一路"倡议的推进是影响人民币国际化进程的重要因素,利用2004-02—2016-09共152个月度数据,基于结构向量自回归(SVAR)模型,实证分析了"一带一路"倡议背景下币值稳定、贸易实力和经济实力以及人民币自身因素对人民币国际化程度的影响.研究结果表明,币值稳定对于促进人民币国际化程度影响显著;由于进出口规模的变动,贸易实力的增加在短期不利于人民币国际化的推进,在长期将产生促进作用;经济实力对人民币国际化具有正向影响,但效果并不显著;货币惯性及网络外部性是人民币国际化的主要推动力.根据研究结论,基于"一带一路"倡议建设的特点,提出政策建议.
The one belt and one road strategy is an important factor affecting the process of RMB internationalization.By using the 152 monthly data from February 2004 to September 2016,based on the structural vector autoregressive(SVAR)model,empirical analyzes the influence of the stability of the currency,trade strength,economic strength,and RMB′s own factors on the degree of RMB internationalization under the background of one belt and one road strategy.The results shows that the stability of currency value has a significant impact on RMB internationalization.The increase of trade strength is not conducive to RMB internationalization in the short term because of the change in the scale of import and export,which will have a promoting effect in the long run.Economic strength has a positive impact on RMB internationalization,but the effect is not significant.Currency inertia and network externality are the main driving forces for RMB internationalization.According to the research conclusion,puts forward the policy suggestion based on the construction features of one belt and one road strategy.
作者
陆畅
于志慧
杨昊
LU Chang;YU Zhi-hui;YANG Hao(School of Finance Administration,Anhui University of Finance and Economics,Bengbu 233030,China;School of Management Science and Engineering,Anhui University of Finance and Economics,Bengbu 233030,China)
出处
《高师理科学刊》
2018年第6期28-34,共7页
Journal of Science of Teachers＇College and University
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(15CJY085)
安徽财经大学大学生科研创新基金项目(XSKY1808ZD)
