摘要
基于传统模型,对模型中权重值μ的计算进行改进。结合近7年唐山京唐港区VTS统计的事故数进行预测,得到不同权重值下的预测值与实际值的离差平方和的曲线,由曲线图能清晰明白地确定离差平方和最小值对应的权重系数,得到高精度的预测值。最后通过实例证明这种改进GM(1.1)方法简单有效,并对2017年的数据进行了预测。
Based on the traditional model,the calculation method of coefficient in the model was improved.Combined with VTS statistics on the number of accidents in nearly 7 years in Jingtang harbor of Tangshan port district,the curve of the sum of squared residuals of the predictive value to actual value under different coefficient was plotted,by which the minimum value corresponding to the coefficient can be determined obviously.The numerical example proved that the improved GM(1.1)method is simple and effective to predict the water accidents.
作者
苏华伟
章文俊
刘宏伟
SU Hua-wei;ZHANG Wen-jun;LIU Hong-wei(Navigation College,Dalian Maritime University,Dalian Liaoning 116026,China)
出处
《船海工程》
北大核心
2018年第A01期238-241,245,共5页
Ship & Ocean Engineering
基金
交通运输部应用基础研究项目(2014329225010)
中央高校基本科研业务经费项目(3132016116,3132016314)
关键词
改进GM(1.1)
权重μ值
事故数
预测精度
improved GM(1,1)model
the coefficient of
number of accidents
prediction precision
