摘要
本文利用2007—2014年中国城市土地出让的微观数据,运用结合特征价格模型的双重和三重差分法,考察了中国高铁建设对城市建设用地市场的多重影响。研究发现:(1)设有高铁车站的城市比未设站城市的地价平均提高约7.0%,且每多开设一个高铁车站,城市地价还会提高约1.3%;(2)高铁建设导致设站城市住宅用地和商业服务业设施用地价格上涨22%和11%,但是工业用地价格下降约17%;(3)用地行业的平均收入越高,或离市中心越近的地块,土地价格受高铁建设的正面影响越大;(4)在城市层面,高铁显著提高地方政府的土地出让数量和出让金总额,为地方间的"高铁争夺战"提供了经验支持。进一步的机制分析表明,促成上述结果的主要原因是高铁的"引流"效应,以及地方政府在出让工业用地和非工业用地时采取"横向补贴"的策略。本文从地方政府土地出让行为的视角,为高铁建设的经济社会效益评估、高铁对区域经济增长及分配效应等问题的研究提供了初步的经验证据。同时,在未来的高铁建设中,要谨防高铁导致区域发展不均衡扩大、商住用地过度开发、强化土地财政而引发的系统性金融风险。
This paper focuses on the impact of China’s high speed rail(HSR)construction on the urban construction land market.Based on the micro data of urban land transfer in China from 2007-2014,the impact of HSR on urban land price and its heterogeneity are investigated utilizing the multiple differences method combined with the hedonic price model.First,it is found that the construction of the HSR station has a significant effect on the land price,and the construction of HSR increases the land price by about 7.0%,and on this basis,the land price increases by 1.3%with each one more station.Second,the impact on different types of land exhibits significant heterogeneity,resulting in a 22%and 11%rise in the price of residential and commercial land respectively,but the price of industrial land is decreased by about 17%.Third,the study also found that the higher the average income of the industries the land parcel is planned for and the closer it located from the city center,the greater the positive impact.Fourth,at the aggregate level,HSR can significantly improve the quantity and income of the land leased by local governments,explaining the phenomenon of“HSR battle”between local governments.The mechanism analysis shows that the structural differences in the land market and the strategy of“lateral subsidies”by local governments in the transfer of industrial and non-industrial land have led to the above results.From the perspective of the land transfer behavior of local government,this paper provides preliminary empirical evidence for the study of the economic and social benefit assessment of the high speed rail construction and its growth and distributional effect on regional economy.At the same time,in the future construction of high speed rail,we should be beware of the uneven expansion of the regional development,the overexploitation of commercial and residential land,the strengthening of the land finance and the systematic financial risk.
作者
周玉龙
杨继东
黄阳华
Geoffrey J.D.Hewings
ZHOU Yu-long;YANG Ji-dong;HUANG Yang-hua;Geoffrey J.D.HEWINGS(School of Economic and Social Development,Nankai University,Tianjin 300071,China;School of Economics,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China;Institute of Industrial Economics,CASS,Beijing 100836,China)
出处
《中国工业经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第5期118-136,共19页
China Industrial Economics
基金
天津市科技计划项目"京津冀协同发展下的城市土地出让策略研究"(批准号ZX20180006)
国家社会科学基金一般项目"基于微观土地交易数据分析视角下的地方政府土地出让行为研究"(批准号17BJL072)
国家自然科学基金青年项目"双重约束下地方政府土地出让行为对中国双重转型的影响研究"(批准号71503261)
关键词
高速铁路
基础设施
土地价格
三重差分法
横向补贴
商住用地
high speed rail
infrastructure
land price
triple difference
lateral subsidy
commercial and residential land
