摘要
为了提高对油气管道事故的综合预测能力,进而降低油气管道事故的发生概率,基于多属性决策理论的理想点解法,研究提出了基于改进理想点解法的油气管道事故综合预测模型。从引起油气管道失效原因分类的角度,构建油气管道事故综合预测指标体系;基于五标度法的改进层次分析法计算指标权重;在此基础上,应用改进理想点解法计算各油气管道的贴近度,根据贴近度值确定各管段事故发生的可能性;以某条长输管线为例,进行了实证分析。研究结果表明:基于改进理想点解法的油气管道事故综合预测结果与实际情况高度吻合;该方法为管道企业从整体上掌握油气管道的安全状况提出了1种新的科学方法,可为管道企业进行管道完整性管理提供决策支持。
In order to improve the comprehensive prediction ability and reduce the occurrence probability of the oil and gas pipeline accidents,a comprehensive prediction model of oil and gas pipeline accidents based on improved TOPSIS(technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution)was proposed based on TOPSIS with the theory of multiple attribute decision making.The index system of comprehensive prediction on the oil and gas pipeline accidents was constructed from the perspective of classifying the reasons causing the failure of oil and gas pipeline,and the index weights were calculated by using the improved analytic hierarchy process(AHP)based on the five-scale method.On this basis,the improved TOPSIS was applied to calculate the closeness of each oil and gas pipeline,then the accident possibility of each pipeline section was determined according to the closeness value.Taking a long-distance pipeline as an example,the empirical analysis was carried out.The results showed that the comprehensive prediction results of the oil and gas pipeline accidents based on the improved TOPSIS were highly consistent with the actual situation.This method provides a new scientific way for the pipeline enterprises to master the safety condition of the oil and gas pipelines as a whole,and thus provides the decision support for the pipeline enterprises to conducted the pipeline integrity management.
作者
王霞
段庆全
WANG Xia;DUAN Qingquan(College of Mechanical and Transportation Engineering,China University of Petroleum(Beijing),Beijing 102249,China)
出处
《中国安全生产科学技术》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第4期119-125,共7页
Journal of Safety Science and Technology
基金
国家重点研发计划课题(2017YFC0805801
2016YFC0802105)
关键词
油气管道
事故综合预测
改进理想点解法
改进层次分析法
多属性决策
贴近度
oil and gas pipeline
comprehensive prediction of accident
improved TOPSIS
improved AHP
multiple attribute decision making
closeness
