摘要
邮电通信部门是国民经济的神经中枢系统,其发展受多方面复杂因素影响。该文从移动通信、人口、交通运输、人民生活水平、对外贸易5个层次中选取因素进行分析,建立多元线性回归分析模型,并利用Eviews 6.0对该模型进行时间序列平稳性检验、协整检验等统计检验,得到了显著影响我国邮电业发展的重要因素。结果表明,移动电话年末用户数、总人口数量、公路里程、居民消费水平、对外贸易总额这5个因素对我国邮电业发展的影响显著,并提出了有利于邮电业发展的意见和建议。
The Department of Post and Telecommunication is the central nervous system of the national economy.The development of post and telecommunication industry is influenced by many complex factors.This paper analyzes the factors from five perspectives,that is,mobile com m unications,population,transportation,people's living standards and foreign trade and establishes a multiple linear regression analysisi model.Eviews 6.0 is used to test the model for time series stability and co-integration te s t,which has obtained significant influence on the devlelopment of China’s post and telecommunications industry.The results show that the num ber of mobile telephone subscribers at the year-end,the total population,highway mileage and resident’s consumption level and total foreign tmde are the five factors that have a significant impact on the development of post and telecommunication industry in China.Based on the results,this paper puts forward opinions and suggestions favorable for the development of post and telecommunication industry.
作者
李清清
李厚彪
LI Qingqing;LI Houbiao(School of Computer Science and Engineering,Lniversity of Electronic Science and Technology of China,Chengdu 611731,China;School of Mathematical Sciences,Lniversity of Electronic Science and Technology of China,Chengdu 611731,China)
出处
《实验科学与技术》
2018年第2期52-55,共4页
Experiment Science and Technology
基金
四川省科技支撑计划项目(M110474012015GZ0002)
电子科技大学教改项目(2015XBJX0041
2016XJYYB037)
关键词
邮电业
平稳性检验
协整检验
发展状况
post and telecommunication industry
stationary test
co-integration test
development status
