摘要
利用饶河流域主要控制站渡峰坑和虎山水文站1953~2016年实测最大洪峰流量序列,采用MannKendall检验法和小波分析等方法,对饶河洪水极值流量的趋势性、突变性及周期性进行了分析,并探讨了洪水极值流量变化与厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)、北大西洋涛动(NAO)、太平洋-北美型(PNA)、东亚夏季季风指数(EASMI)、南中国海夏季季风指数(SCSMI)、太阳黑子(SS)等15个气候指标之间的相互关系。结果表明:(1)渡峰坑站年最大流量总体上呈不显著增加趋势,虎山站年最大流量总体呈不显著减少的趋势;虎山站年最大流量在1964年和1999年前后发生了突变,1964年后最大洪峰流量发生了由减少到增加的突变,而1999年后则发生了由增加到减少的突变,渡峰坑年最大洪峰流量在2007年前后发生了由减少到增加的突变。(2)渡峰坑及虎山站年最大洪峰流量系列均存在2~8 a的短振荡周期、14 a左右的中振荡周期以及超过20 a的长振荡周期,且以长振荡周期为主周期。(3)年最大流量系列与EASMI、SCSMI、NOA、PNA和SS存在显著相关性,且均表现为显著负相关。
Based on maximum flood discharge sequence from two hydrological stations,Dufengkeng Station and Hushan Station,from 1953 to 2016 in the Raohe River basin,the characteristics of extreme flood peak,including variation tendency,mutation,periodicity,were analyzed by using the Mann-Kendall test and wavelet analysis.In addition,tele-correlations between the variations of extreme floods and 15 climatic indexes,such as El Nino Southern Oscillation(ENSO),North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO),Pacific and North America type(PNA),East Asia Summer Monsoon Index(EASMI),South China Sea Summer Monsoon Index(SCSMI),and sunspot(SS),were discussed.The results showed that the extreme runoff of Dufengkeng Station had insignificantly increasing trends while Hushan station had insignificantly decreasing trends;the annual maximum discharge of Hushan Station had an abrupt change in 1964 and 1999,changing from decreasing to increasing after 1964 and changing from increasing to decreasing after 1999,while the maximum flood discharge of Dufengkeng had an abrupt change from decreasing to increasing in 2007;the annual maximum flood discharge series of Dufengkeng Station and Hushan Station all had 3 fluctuated periods:short fluctuated period in 2-8 years,14 years‘middle fluctuated period and over 20 year’s long fluctuated period,and the main period was the long one.In general,the extreme runoff in the Raohe River had significant negative correlations with EASMI,SCSMI,NOA,PNA and SS.
作者
刘丽娜
刘卫林
黄孝明
LIU Lina;LIU Weilin;HUANG Xiaoming(Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Water Environment,Nanchang Institute of Technology,Nanchang 330099,China;Jingdezhen Hydrological Bureau,Jingdezhen 333003,China)
出处
《人民长江》
北大核心
2018年第8期13-19,共7页
Yangtze River
基金
江西省科技厅青年基金项目(20132BAB213025)
国家自然科学青年基金项目(51309130)
南昌工程学院青年科学基金项目(2014KJ001)
江西省大学生创新创业教育计划项目(201411319019)
