摘要
针对风电的不确定性,首先根据"风速-风功率"关系建立了风电的预测误差概率分布描述。与一般描述相比,所建立的描述是典型的非规则分布,具有脉冲、多峰等特征,可更准确地描述实际风电误差的不确定性。在基于该描述研究考虑风电的概率机组组合问题时,由于分布的非规则特征,解析法已经难以适用,需要使用场景抽样方法。然而,传统的场景抽样方法大都针对规则分布提出,为此针对此非规则分布,提出了一种场景抽样方法,可使得抽样出的场景更具有代表性,更适合概率机组组合问题的需要。仿真结果也说明了所提出抽样方法的优势。
In view of the uncertainty of wind power,this paper establishes a description of the probability distribution of wind power forecast error according to the relationship between wind speed and wind power.Based on the description of the probabilistic unit combination considering wind power,the analytic method is difficult to apply due to the non-regular features of the distribution.This paper presents a scene sampling method for this irregular distribution,which makes the sampling scene more representative and more suitable for the combination of probabilistic units.
出处
《工业控制计算机》
2018年第4期149-151,共3页
Industrial Control Computer
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目(51477157)
关键词
风电出力非规则分布
风电场景
场景抽样
wind power non-regular probability distribution
wind scenarios
the scene sampling method
