摘要
文章根据处于产业链不同位置的行业债务负担率变化经验事实,基于全球向量自回归模型,对行业间债务负担率的动态关系以及宏观经济变量波动对上、中和下游行业债务负担率的冲击效应进行实证分析。结论表明,下游行业债务负担率对其主要上游行业冲击的响应值较大,响应正负方向不一,而反之较小,且方向基本一致;上游行业整体债务负担率对M2、银行长期贷款和居民储蓄的冲击相对敏感;下游行业对银行短期贷款、居民储蓄、税收和零售总额较敏感;中游行业的响应值基本介于上、下游行业之间。结论还表明,房地产行业的债务负担率易受M2和银行长期贷款波动的影响。最后,文章提出了降低我国非金融企业债务负担率的政策建议。
According to the experimental facts of the changes of debt burden rate of industries,which are in different positions of industry chain,this paper makes an empirical analysis on the dynamic relationship of debt burden rate between industries as well as the impact of macroeconomic variables on the debt burden rate of the upper,middle and downstream industries.The study results show that:The response of the debt burden rate of downstream industries to the impact of the main upstream industries is larger,and the responses to the positive and negative directions are different,but the opposite is smaller,and the directions are basically the same;The overall debt burden rate of upstream industries is relatively sensitive to the impact of M2,long-term bank loans and residents savings;The downstream industries are more sensitive to banks short-term loans,residents savings,taxes and retail sales;The response of middle industries is basically between the upstream and downstream industries.The results also indicate that the debt burden rate of the real estate industry is easily affected by the fluctuations of M2 and the long-term bank loans.Finally,the paper proposes policy suggestions on reducing the debt burden rate of non financial enterprises in China
作者
韩扬
何建敏
吴炳辉
HAN Yang;HE Jian-min;WU Bing-hui(School of Economics and Management,Southeast University,Nanjing 211189,China)
出处
《华东经济管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第4期117-125,共9页
East China Economic Management
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71371051)
关键词
产业链
债务负担率
权重矩阵
溢出效应
industrial chain
debt burden rate
weight matrix
spillover effects
