摘要
文章以1991-2015年山东省城市建设用地和地区生产总值数据为基础,运用计量分析方法研究两者之间的动态关联,结果表明:两者存在正相关的长期均衡关系,城市建设用地每扩张1%,GDP就会增长1.83%;格兰杰因果检验表明城市建设用地的变化是经济增长的原因,但不能证明经济增长是建设用地扩张的原因。城市建设用地对经济增长一个标准差的影响具有连续波动的正效应,且作用力较大;经济增长对城市建设用地一个标准差冲击的反应微弱,甚至出现负向效应。城市建设用地扩张对经济增长的解释度达到67.26%;而经济增长对城市建设用地扩张的解释度仅为30.95%。研究结果表明,山东省城市建设用地扩张会带来GDP的增加,而GDP增加不一定促进城市建设用地的扩张。
Based on the data of urban construction land and regional GDP in Shandong province from 1991 to 2015,the paper applies the econometric analysis method to study the dynamic association between them.The results show that:There is a positive long-term equilibrium relationship between urban construction land and regional GDP,when the urban construction land expands by 1%,GDP will grow by 1.83%;Granger causality test shows that the change of urban construction land is the cause of economic growth,but it cannot be proved that economic growth is the cause of construction land expansion.The influence of urban construction land on a standard deviation of economic growth has a positive effect of continuous fluctuation,and the force is great;The impact of economic growth on a standard deviation of urban construction land is weak,even negative effect.The urban construction land expansion interprets 67.26%of the economic growth,whereas the economic growth only interprets 30.95%of the urban construction land expansion.The study results show that the urban construction land expansion leads to the increase of GDP,while the increase of GDP may not promote the urban construction land expansion in Shandong province.
作者
李雅楠
王成新
LI Ya-nan;WANG Cheng-xin(College of Geography and Environment,Shandong Normal University,Jinan 250358,China)
出处
《华东经济管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第2期30-34,共5页
East China Economic Management
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41371170)
国家社会科学基金项目(13BKS031)
关键词
建设用地
经济增长
动态关联
山东省
construction land
economic growth
dynamic association
Shandong province
