摘要
将经典的Kriging空间插值进行时空扩展,应用时空变异函数建立隧道围岩位移预测模型;分析参数与变形的之间的关系,给出时空插值的计算程序和方法。在此基础上采用时空统一Kriging插值预测模型和DGM(1,1)灰色预测模型预测隧道施工过程中掌子面前方一定范围内任意时刻的拱顶沉降。以湖南省娄底市笋安山隧道为试验对象,对比分析以上2个预测模型的位移预测值与实测值,并分别对位移预测值和实测值进行交叉验证。研究结果表明:相对于DGM(1,1)灰色预测模型,时空统一Kriging模型预测精度更高,能更准确地预测拱顶下沉位移的发展变化趋势,在实际隧道工程的围岩位移预测中是有效的、可行的。
The classical Kriging spatial interpolation was extended by space-time,and the displacement prediction modelof tunnel surrounding rock was established by using spatiotemporal variation function.Base on the analysis of the relationship between parameters and displacement,the calculation procedure was given and method of temporal-spatial interpolation was put forward.Then Kriging interpolation prediction model with space-time unification and DGM(1,1)grey prediction model were applied to predict the vault displacement within a certain scope ahead of excavation face atany time during tunnel construction.Sunanshan Tunnel is located in Loudi City of Hunan Province,which was taken as the test subject to analyze displacement differences between the predicted values and the measured values of the above two prediction models,and the predicted values and measured values were cross-checked respectively.The results show that compared with the DGM(1,1)grey prediction model,the prediction accuracy of unified space-time Kriging model is higher,which shows that it can more accurately predict the trend of the vault settlement displacement and proves to be effective and feasible in displacement prediction of surrounding rock in actual tunnel project.
作者
张可能
胡达
何杰
吴有平
ZHANG Keneng;HU Da;HE Jie;WU Youping(Key Laboratory of Metallogenic Prediction of Nonferrous Metals and Geological Environmental Monitoring,Ministry of Education, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China;School of Geosciences and Info-Physics, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China;Hunan Lianzhi Bridge & Tunnel Technology Co. Ltd., Changsha 410200, China;College of Science and Technology, Hunan University of Technology, Zhuzhou 412007, China)
出处
《中南大学学报（自然科学版）》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第12期3328-3334,共7页
Journal of Central South University:Science and Technology
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51108176)~~
关键词
KRIGING模型
隧道工程
位移预测
灰色预测
掌子面
Kriging model
tunnel project
displacement prediction
grey prediction theory
tunnel face
