摘要
通过统计和分析历年输电线路覆冰案例，根据气象和地理规律，提出一种基于气象信息的输电线路覆冰厚度预测方法。利用气象模式预报资料、气象台站观测资料和地形地貌信息，对冷空气中心路径预报，并通过覆冰气象地理模型预报未来一段时间出现覆冰的区域和线路，给出输电线路覆冰厚度预报值。另外采用高精度的地理信息资料订正冰厚，实现输电线路覆冰厚度预报。系统在湖北电网部署以来，多次准确预报了覆冰发生区域和输电线路冰厚，为线路运维人员防灾应急处置争取了宝贵时间。经实际验证，本方法预测输电线路覆冰厚度准确度高、实用性强，具有推广价值，同时也为开发输电线路舞动、雷电等灾害预报系统积累了经验。
By summarizing weather and geographical laws of the transmission lines icing over the years,a new icing thickness forecast method for transmission line is proposed in this paper based on the weather information.Using the meteorological model forecast data,weather station observations and topography information,the path of cold air center is forecasted.The region and transmission lines which would appear icing are forecasted by the meteorological and geographic model.The value of ice thickness on the transmission lines is obtained,which is revised by the high-precision geographic information.The forecast of the transmission lines icing thickness is realized.Since the system is deployed in Hubei power grid,the region and the icing thickness of transmission lines are predicted accurately,valuable time has been gained for the operation and maintenance personnel for the disaster prevention and emergency response.This method has high accuracy,and is suitable for application and dissemination.It also accumulates experience for the other disaster forecasting system.
作者
黄俊杰
胡丹晖
王文烁
方圆
HUANG Junjie;HU Danhui;WANG Wenshuo;FANG Yuan(State Grid Hubei Electric Power Research Institute, Wuhan Hubei 430077, China;Key Laboratory of High-voltage Field-test Technique of State Grid, Wuhan Hubei 430077, China)
出处
《湖北电力》
2016年第12期1-4,24,共5页
Hubei Electric Power
关键词
输电线路
覆冰
预报
气象地理信息
transmission lines
icing
forecast
weather and geographical information
