摘要
确定影响ET_0年际变化的主要气象因子是准确估算未来作物需水的基础,对于农业生产科学应对气候变化具有重要意义。以河南省17个站点为例,分别采用国内外常用的5种数理统计方法评价7个气象要素对参考作物蒸散量(reference crop evapotranspiration,ET_0)年际变化的影响程度,结果发现:日照和风速是影响河南省地区参考作物蒸散量的主要因子,黄河以北地区主要为风速,黄河以南地区以日照为主,信阳、西峡两地高温作用不容忽视。5种方法评判结果差异较大,采用灰色关联分析法,利用不同的数据变换方式,其结果大相径庭,认为其不适宜用于评价影响ET_0变化主要因子的判定;结合各站气象要素年际变化趋势分析认为,逐步回归分析法得出的结论与各站点气象要素及ET_0实际变化趋势存在多处悖理,不适宜用于评价影响ET_0变化主要因子的判定;相关分析、偏相关分析、主导分析方法结果较为统一,差异较小,认为采用3种方法综合判定某地区影响ET_0的主要因子,其结果较为可信。其中,采用主导分析法对各气象因子的影响排序与各因子对ET_0的影响趋势以及ET_0实际变化趋势较为一致,建议用于评价影响ET_0变化的气象因子排序,但因其无法得到各因子与ET_0的相关关系,需借助相关分析与偏相关分析才能得到详实可信的结果。
To determine the main meteorological factors affecting the inter-annual variability of ET0is the basis of accurate estimation of crop water requirement in the future,and is also of great significance in dealing with the climate change for agricultural production.In this paper,we investigated the factors affecting reference crop evapotranspiration(ET0)based on different mathematical statistic methods in Henan province.The evaluation results from the different methods were compared with the actual variation trend of ET0and each factor.The effective method should be consistent with the trend.From common methods,we selected5methods to evaluate the effects of7meteorological factors on the inter-annual variability of ET0based on the meteorological data of17stations in Henan province.The5methods included the correlation method,partial correlation method,dominant method,stepwise regression analysis,grey correlation analysis based on numerical average,numerical initial and numerical standardization data.The data were on the highest temperature,the lowest temperature,average temperature,relative humidity,precipitation,wind speed and sunshine hours.They were from meteorological stations.The annual average of daily ET0was calculated by the Penman-Monteith method.The result showed that the influential factors based on the5methods were different for each station.By considering the trend of ET0and each factor during a long term,we obtained the main factors affecting ET0in Henan.The sunshine was the primary factor for Shangqiu,Xuchang,Lushi,Xixia,Nanyang,Zhumadian,Xinyang,and Gushi stations.The wind speed was the primary factor for Anyang,Xinxiang,Kaifeng,Zhengzhou,Luanchuan and Mengjin station.In the other stations,sunshine and wind speed were both the primary factor.In sum,the sunshine and wind speed were the main factors affecting reference crop evapotranspiration in Henan province,the average wind speed was more important than the other factors in the northern region of the Yellow River,but the sunshine was more important in
作者
宋妮
申孝军
陈智芳
王景雷
刘祖贵
Song Ni;Shen Xiaojun;Chen Zhifang;Wang Jinglei;Liu Zugui(Farmland Irrigation Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Xinxiang 453002, China;Key Laboratory for Crop Water Use and Regulation, Ministry of Agriculture, Xinxiang 453002, China)
出处
《农业工程学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第23期145-156,共12页
Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(51609245
51309227)
水利部公益性行业专项(201501016-2)
河南省基础与前沿技术研究(162300410168)
中央级科研院所基本科研业务费专项资助项目(FIRI2017-07)
关键词
蒸散量
相关分析
主导分析
偏相关分析
影响因子
河南省
evapotranspiration
correlation analysis
dominant analysis
partial correlation analysis
main influence factor
Henan province
